Diverging shopper priorities fuel growth for value and fresh-format grocers

CHICAGO, Feb. 26, 2026 – A growing divergence in consumer spending is splitting the U.S. grocery market, with value-focused and premium fresh-format grocers rapidly gaining momentum and foot traffic, according to JLL’s 2026 Grocery Tracker report. The report finds this market bifurcation is creating clear winners among grocery anchored sites/centers, driving performance for the real estate they occupy.

On one end of the market, shoppers under pressure from inflation are focused on value-oriented grocers. This has fueled the continued success of discount chains like Aldi, which was the fastest growing grocer in the U.S. in 2025 with 180 new stores and 800 expected by 2028, as well as Grocery Outlet, which also saw significant unit growth by adding 37 new locations.

At the same time, shoppers focused on high-quality offerings are driving traffic to fresh-format and specialty stores. This trend has benefited grocers like Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods seeing same-store visits surge by 10.4% and 9.8%, respectively, while Sprouts Farmers Market expanded its footprint in the U.S. with 39 new stores.

“The data confirms a two-track market where traditional supermarkets are being squeezed. We’re seeing a pronounced flight to value, with our research showing shoppers making more frequent, shorter trips to manage budgets and private label sales surging 30% since 2021 to over $282 billion. This is happening while fresh-format players are successfully capturing a dedicated consumer base. This split is the single most important trend for landlords, as a retail center’s performance is now more dependent on the strength and format of its grocery anchor than ever before,” said James Cook, Americas Director of Research, Retail at JLL.

This market bifurcation is directly translating to superior real estate fundamentals for centers anchored by these winning formats:

• Lower Vacancy: Grocery-anchored centers maintain a vacancy rate of just 4.0%, significantly outperforming the 6.3% rate for non-anchored centers, commanding a 4.4% rent premium
  
• Higher Tenant Stability: The consistent, needs-based traffic from a strong grocery anchor supports leasing and retention for smaller shops, resulting in less space being vacated compared to centers without one
   

“For landlords, this trend sharpens the focus on how well their grocery anchor meets a specific consumer demand. A successful anchor from one of these growing segments acts as a powerful draw because shoppers are making intentional choices,” said Naveen Jaggi, President of Retail Advisory Services at JLL. “This strong consumer alignment enhances leasing prospects for adjacent space, as complementary retailers seek to position themselves where their target customers are already shopping. It creates a thriving retail ecosystem that benefits the entire retail center."

Investor appetite for these resilient assets has intensified. As stated in JLL’s report, transaction volume for grocery-anchored centers surged 42% over the past year to nearly $11 billion, and institutional investors are taking a larger stake, accounting for 27% of acquisitions in 2025. This heightened demand underscores the market's confidence in properties anchored by today's winning grocery formats.

“Investors are taking notice. They are no longer underwriting a generic asset class but are now laser-focused on the strength and format of the grocer itself. This explains the flight to quality and the surge in transaction volume, as capital seeks out the stability and durable cash flow that centers with these winning anchors provide,” said Chris Angelone, Senior Managing Director, Retail Capital Markets at JLL.