New logistics inventory arrives with 80% pre-leased | Q3 2026

For yet another consecutive quarter, the vacancy rate for logistics warehouses in Brazil has declined. Between July and September, the rate reached 4.9%, 1.6 p.p. below the previous period, according to a survey conducted by JLL. With little product available for lease, occupiers are targeting developments even before they are delivered. The third quarter recorded 849 k sqm of new inventory, the largest volume of the year, with 80% already pre-leased, a record to date. With this addition, the national market surpassed the 40 million sqm mark.

By the end of 2026, another 2.2 million sqm of new supply are still expected, half of which has already been contracted, mostly by e-commerce companies. Mercado Livre has already secured occupancy of 759 k sqm spread across seven states. Shopee, another online retail giant, has reserved a further 461 k sqm. André Romano, manager of JLL’s Industrial and Logistics Division, analyzes the competition for space. “This year, the logistics market has recorded net absorption of around 1 million sqm in every quarter. This shows how heated demand is and how planning for the leasing of new warehouses has become essential within companies. It’s a game of chess to anticipate needs and secure strategic locations.”

Mercado Livre remains the largest taker of space in Brazil. If we add up the areas occupied by the company, the volume is larger than the inventory of many Brazilian states, trailing only São Paulo and Minas Gerais, with the potential to surpass MG soon. “This shows a consistent movement by the company, which always seeks prime assets,” says Romano.

São Paulo accounted for 61% of the quarter’s new inventory in Brazil and was responsible for 59% of national net absorption. With a vacancy rate of 4.4%, below the national average, the state saw asking prices rise 28% from the first to the second half. JLL’s survey shows that of the 917 k sqm projected for delivery in São Paulo by the end of the year, 74% already have pre-leasing contracts.

According to Rafael Picerni, Research and Strategy analyst at JLL, interest in the São Paulo market has expanded into the interior of the state, beyond the 70 km radius around the capital. “We see the development and absorption of projects in regions such as Americana, Ribeirão Preto and Piracicaba. The latter recorded the largest delivery of the period, with more than 150 k sqm arriving in a single facility.”

Moving to the North region, Manaus is a new area of market interest and is already seeing its boundaries expand beyond the industrial district, which has about 180 k sqm planned. “Because it remains an incentivized area after the Tax Reform, demand is expected to grow along this axis, which does not yet have a significant stock of high-standard logistics warehouses,” concludes Romano.

For additional context on findings in the latest report, download the prior Q2 2026 Brazil Industrial market dynamics report.