How to plan real estate in an unpredictable world

The traditional rhythm of real estate strategy, which to many organisations has looked like annual planning cycles and multi-year forecasts, is no longer viable. In an environment defined by geopolitical disruption, supply chain volatility and frequent policy shifts, ongoing planning, preparing for multiple futures and shortened and flexible response windows are becoming the operational norm.

For government departments in particular, which typically manage complex portfolios, having the capability to respond continuously to disruption has become a core requirement. This means understanding which risks can be controlled, which tools help teams adapt, and how to structure decisions when timelines compress and certainty disappears.

“We’ve always contended with the uncertainty of election cycles, and we have the muscle memory for it, but strategic planning can no longer be a once-a-year block," said Ainsley Reddy, head of leasing on JLL's Australian government account, speaking at JLL’s Signature event in Canberra, in June.

So how do public sector departments manage their real estate portfolios when disruption is constant and planning cycles keep breaking? 

One answer lies in how organisations handle supply chain risk. Delivering construction and fit-out projects across portfolios is a significant area of exposure.

For example, PVC and polyethylene, used in plumbing pipes and electric cabling, are oil in solid form. When the price of crude oil spiked in March/April 2026, suppliers moved PVC and polyethylene prices up approximately 30%. Unlike diesel, that escalation has barely budged because it's driven by reduced global petrochemical capacity, not just fluctuations in the barrel price.

From elevators and mechanical systems to structural steel and glass, supply chain disruption affects critical building components at every level. 

Raw materials such as copper, steel, and insulation materials, which feed into a wide range of construction products, are equally exposed to shipping delays, energy price volatility and supplier insolvency.

“Adopting a systems thinking approach and understanding where critical materials originate, along with flow on effects to the supply chain and shipping routes, has become an essential capability to minimise disruption,” says Bryan Froud, director at JLL Consulting. 

“Agencies that manage global estates, and especially with the added complexity of remote site locations and limited local contractor capacity, must be particularly nimble and be prepared with contingencies,” he adds. 

The compression of decision windows means that choices once deferred by years now require immediate attention. At the Canberra event, Froud described working with an organsation whose lease does not expire until 2032. Yet, given a thin development pipeline and four to five-year build timelines, the decision about whether to stay or relocate needs to be made now. "The reaction is often, 'Didn't we just make a decision?' Yes, but you have to do it again."

JLL is responding by developing a scenario-based resilience framework, applying this broadly across government and corporate portfolios. "It's not about predicting the future, but imagining multiple futures so you're prepared if one lands," Froud explained.

Rather than attempting to forecast a single outcome, the approach maps multiple futures against indicators such as GDP movement, inflation, oil dependency and geopolitical risk. JLL then identifies triggers and response pathways for each.

At the project level, this translates into what JLL Consulting has termed the ‘four S’ framework: stockpile, substitute, salvage and suspend. Stockpiling refers to the forward procurement of critical components when supply chains tighten. Substitution involves identifying alternative materials or suppliers when primary sources become unavailable. Salvage draws on reclaimed or recycled materials to bypass constrained supply chains while advancing sustainability objectives. Suspension refers to the strategic deferral of non-critical work to preserve resources and scheduling flexibility.

The framework is being applied at both portfolio and workstream levels, assessing risks that span from those largely outside organisational control – such as climate events and exchange rate fluctuations – to those where mitigation is possible through procurement strategy, contract structuring or design flexibility.

Construction activity is not the only area of exposure. Day-to-day operations remain vulnerable to supply disruptions affecting maintenance, equipment replacement and facility management. There is impact whether properties are leased or owned.

JLL is working with clients to identify the ways in which the global economy affects their fit-out and operations, helping them understand that products required for building upgrades come from all over the world and travel through vulnerable routes.

Froud captures the shift in mindset required: "It's not about predicting the future, but imagining multiple futures so you're prepared if one lands." Organisations that do not adapt while competitors move will be left behind, he adds.

The path forward requires organisations to stop seeking certainty and start building the capability to move without it, whether through scenario planning, compressed review cycles or forward procurement strategies.