2025: the retail revolution in Spain and Portugal

In 2024, the retail market in Spain and Portugal experienced a significant transformation, driven by investor confidence and robust economic activity. Below is a summary of key aspects from the report detailing this evolution and projections for the near future.

Spain led economic growth in 2024 with a GDP increase of 3.2%, expected to moderate to 2.5% in 2025. Inflation remains under control, close to the 2% forecast by the ECB. Portugal follows a similar trend, demonstrating adaptability to more demanding consumption and a favorable foreign investment context. The return of international tourism and the rise of integrated physical-digital commerce have laid the foundations for a revolutionary year in the sector.

The demand for quality spaces in prime locations remained persistent in 2024, with significant growth driven by a steady flow of international tourists. In Spain, consumer confidence and the large number of new openings on the main streets of Madrid and Barcelona consolidated physical stores as an essential asset in retail strategy. Portugal also experienced an 18% increase in tourist arrivals, strengthening demand in the sector.

Regarding supply, Spain and Portugal have continued to expand their commercial facilities. Spain opened 17 million sqm in 2024 and projects over half a million sqm of new space for 2025–2026. Portugal anticipates a strategic development focused on retail parks, reaffirming the maturity and evolution of its market.

In 2024, prime rents in Spain increased to €267.5/sqm/month, and in Portugal, to €140/sqm/month, driven by strong demand. This growth reflects the competitiveness and attractiveness of the market for high-quality locations, with a notable impact on major commercial areas.

The retail sector in Iberia reached investments of nearly €3.85 billion in 2024, surpassing 2023 levels by 135%. Shopping centers led this activity, attracting both national and international capital. The interest in prime assets and the return of institutional capital to High Street will keep the market dynamic.

What does the future hold for the real estate sector? This report highlights the most relevant trends that will shape its development.