Building tomorrow’s workforce today

• The million-job gap: A persistent, structural talent shortage defines the skilled trades sector. Job postings have doubled over the past decade, yet by 2030 an estimated 2.1 million trades positions could go unfilled — with potential economic losses reaching $1 trillion annually.
• Market tide is turning: Soaring college costs and AI disruption are reshaping career decisions. Rising enrollment in vocational schools and trades-related programs signals an encouraging shift in labor supply dynamics toward solving a generational gap. But this alone won’t keep pace with rising demand.
• Trades, redefined: The challenge extends beyond headcount. Increasing sophistication of smart buildings demands skilled trades workers to expand their core capabilities and digital fluency. This creates a defining opportunity for the industry to rebrand and promote trades careers for the next generation.
• The ecosystem is mobilizing: Both the public and private sectors are committing unprecedented capital to skilled trades talent development. The surge of investments and coordinated action creates a strategic window for first-moving CRE operators to capture emerging talent and secure competitive advantages.
• Win as workforce orchestrators: CRE operators and contractors must adopt a holistic Build-Grow-Retain approach — build talent pipelines by actively participating in workforce development, grow capabilities with continuous upskilling, and retain top performers through high-performance cultures that drive long-term engagement.
   

In an economy often headlined by technology entrepreneurs chasing the next innovation and healthcare professionals shaping how millions live, one foundational workforce operates largely out of sight: skilled trades workers — electricians, HVAC technicians, plumbers and many others — custodians of the physical infrastructure upon which every organization depends. Tradespeople apply specialized skills to keep our homes, places of business and communities performing and growing. Yet despite their indispensability, skilled trades have traditionally been underrepresented in workforce research and investment, a gap with real consequences for business continuity and economic resilience.

Our research reveals both the urgency and opportunity. At 96 billion s.f. across 6 million buildings, the U.S. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market generates enormous and ever-expanding demand for skilled trades talent across the full lifecycle of construction, operations and redevelopment. With 53% of the building stock delivered before 1990, the imperative to modernize aging assets — and the skilled trades workforce that supports the functionality, adaptability and longevity of the built environment — has never been greater. 

We invite you to explore our insights and consider how this strategic roadmap can inform your organization's approach to building, growing and retaining the next generation of skilled trades talent — a workforce fundamental to how your real estate portfolio will adapt and thrive amid increasingly complex and technologically advanced building operations.

Driven by tremendous building modernization needs and robust construction activity in high-growth sectors, demand for skilled trades talent has seen strong and consistent momentum in recent years. Though broad labor conditions in the U.S. have cooled from the post-pandemic peak, demand growth for skilled trades has been surpassing that of other major job categories. Tracked annual job postings for skilled trades have doubled over the past decade, notably outgrowing postings for knowledge workers as well as service, education and healthcare (Eds and Meds) professionals.

This outsized growth is expected to continue well into the future.
 

• A rapidly expanding AI infrastructure heightens the need for electricity — and electricians. Microsoft, for example, identifies the shortage of electricians as the single biggest challenge for its data center expansion. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects electrician employment to expand 9.5% over the next decade, triple the 3.1% average for all occupations. This translates to an estimated 81,000 electrician job openings per year, driven not only by new demand but also by the need to replace workers who change careers or retire.
• Demand for HVAC technicians is also projected to increase significantly (+8.1% 2024-2034, or about 40,100 job openings per year), as growing emphasis on energy efficiency and pollution reduction leads more climate-control systems to be retrofitted, upgraded or replaced entirely.

Yet this persistent demand has been met with an insufficient talent pipeline. As four-year colleges became the culturally reinforced path of choice over several decades, enrollment in vocational schools and apprenticeship programs has historically stagnated, creating a generational chasm of skilled trades talent. According to Draup, nearly 600,000 jobs were posted last year for major skilled trades in the U.S., while only about 150,000 new workers entered the labor pool through apprenticeship programs. U.S. Department of Education estimates that among construction, manufacturing and other skilled trades — where labor force participation is particularly low and skill gaps are acute — for every five workers who retire, only two replacements enter the workforce. By 2030, an estimated 2.1 million skilled trade jobs could go unfilled, with potential economic losses reaching $1 trillion annually.

The pendulum, however, may be swinging back, driven in large part by the skyrocketing cost of college education. College tuition has risen by 900% since 1983, nearly double the growth rate of medical costs and four times that of housing prices. Student loan debt surpassed $1.8 trillion in 2025, having more than doubled since 2010. Meanwhile, an electrician or HVAC technician can complete an apprenticeship often with no debt, then steadily progress toward a six-figure salary as a licensed journeyman. The math is recalibrating.

Recent AI breakthroughs are accelerating the paradigm shift. Growing public recognition that many white-collar professions may become increasingly vulnerable to automation has made the resilience of skilled trades more visible and compelling. Skilled trades require physical interactions with buildings and assets in complex, dynamic and often mission-critical environments — the type of hands-on expertise and onsite delivery AI is positioned to augment but not replicate for any foreseeable horizon.

Postsecondary school decisions confirm a meaningful shift in progress.
 

• Appreciation is growing among young Americans for the multitude of routes to a fulfilling career with family-sustaining wages. According to a recent survey of 3,000+ students, teens considering apprenticeships, vocational schools and technical bootcamp programs more than tripled from 12% in 2018 to 38% in 2024, signaling a generational shift in career expectations.
• Community college enrollment has risen 12% over the past five years, compared to a modest 3% at four-year institutions. Community colleges are also less viewed as “a means to an end”. Within two-year programs, institutions focused on career and technical disciplines have seen a 20% increase in enrollment, more than double the 9% rise at transfer-focused schools.
• Trades-related majors are among the fastest-growing disciplines in two-year programs. From 2024 to 2025, engineering, mechanic and repair technologies, construction trades and engineering technologies outgrew nearly all majors, while computer and information sciences posted the steepest year-over-year decline in enrollment.

As the labor market has evolved, so have buildings themselves. What were once straightforward mechanical and electrical systems are now networked, software-controlled assets interconnected into a sophisticated ecosystem. Smart building technologies — IoT platforms, automated building management systems, real-time sensors and performance analytics — have transformed how buildings are operated, monitored and optimized.
 

• Expanding trade capabilities: Building evolutions expand the role of skilled trades, demanding advanced capabilities to handle more intricate building assets, complex M&E specifications and comprehensive health and safety regulations. Trades-enabling technologies — from digital work order systems to mobile diagnostics tools — are augmenting worker productivity while raising baseline skill expectations. As such, talent preparedness requires greater technical grounding to navigate digital field tools and sophisticated equipment with confidence.
• Elevating trade careers: The same evolutions elevate skilled trades as a career path that combines hands-on problem-solving with the technical depth modern buildings demand, rewriting the outdated perception of trades work. This is a compelling proposition for young, digitally-native talent entering the workforce — and a defining opportunity for the industry to rebrand skilled trades as the next-generation, technology-empowered profession it has become.

Addressing both workforce supply and capability advancement needs requires coordinated action across multiple stakeholders. Success depends on an integrated ecosystem where each actor plays a distinct role in building, growing and retaining the talent pipeline.

Within the talent ecosystem, CRE operators, services firms and contractors hold a uniquely critical position as Workforce Orchestrators. Operators directly manage buildings and deploy skilled trades teams across diverse portfolios at scale — positioning them at the operational center of talent development. This role demands moving beyond passive recruitment to holistic, lifecycle approaches that build pipelines, grow capabilities, and retain talent long-term. The Build-Grow-Retain framework provides a strategic roadmap for CRE operators to transform workforce challenges into lasting competitive advantages.

Build-Grow-Retain strategies maximize impact through active ecosystem engagement. The framework succeeds when operators combine internal actions with strategic external partnerships across the talent network. Each partnership requires specific engagement mechanisms aligned to pipeline building, capability growth and retention outcomes.

Beyond CRE operators, momentum is building across the full ecosystem. More corporations and government agencies are committing substantial investments to expand skilled trades talent pipelines, as demand for new and modernized infrastructure reaches new heights. A mobilizing ecosystem creates a defining window for CRE operators, services firms and contractors. Workforce orchestrators that translate this momentum into immediate organizational action will secure competitive advantages in cost control, service quality and facility resilience. Those who delay risk escalating labor premiums, operational disruptions and deepening talent shortages as competition intensifies. The path forward is both a business imperative and a strategic obligation.