India's senior living housing sector to skyrocket over 300% by 2030

• India houses the world's second-largest senior population, expected to more than double from 156.7 million in 2024 to 346.0 million by 2050.
  
  
• Current 1.3% market penetration (senior living stock* divided by the potential demand) signals vast untapped potential compared to mature markets like the United States and Australia (over 6%)
  
  
• Estimated target market for senior living facilities projected to grow from 1.57 million households in 2024 to 2.27 million by 2030.

DELHI NCR, NOVEMBER 14, 2024 – India’s senior population—defined as individuals aged sixty and above— is poised to more than double, from 156.7 million in 2024 to an astounding 346 million by 2050. This demographic shift will make India home to the world’s second-largest elderly population, presenting both significant challenges and immense opportunities. The most pressing of these opportunities lies in improving the quality of life and well-being for this growing segment of society. In response to this, The Association of Senior Living India (ASLI) is set to host a landmark event that could reshape India’s emerging senior care industry, often referred to as the "Silver Economy." The 5th ASLI Ageing Fest, scheduled for December 6, 2024, in Bangalore, will explore the critical question: Is India’s senior care sector ready for take-off?”

“With the senior population in India projected to surpass 300 million by 2050, making up nearly 20% of the total population, the demand for comprehensive senior CARE solutions is set to increase dramatically. Presently only 5% of India’s elderly have access to institutional care, and over half live without social security. With a significant gap in geriatric healthcare services as well — less than 0.7 hospital beds per 1,000 elderly — it is imperative that we build inclusive, accessible, and sustainable senior care models. Wellness and Healthcare should be a key focus, integrated seamlessly with housing solutions that prioritize safety, comfort, and community support. Social integration must be emphasized to combat isolation and foster well-being and connectedness among the elderly. By doing so, India can build a framework that not only meets the needs of its aging population but also enriches their quality of life, making their golden years joyful," said Mr. Rajit Mehta, Chairman, ASLI and MD & CEO, Antara Senior Care.

In recent years, India’s senior care sector has undergone a dramatic transformation. It has evolved from a nascent industry into a dynamic field, offering tailored solutions to meet the diverse and ever-changing needs of its elderly population. This transformation is taking place at a crucial moment in the country’s demographic shift. To highlight the vast potential of this rapidly expanding market, ASLI has partnered with JLL to unveil a comprehensive report on senior living. The inaugural report, "Elevating the Golden Years: Senior Living Opportunities in India’s Evolving Market," launched at today’s curtain-raiser event for the 5th ASLI Ageing Fest. The report’s first instalment focuses on the burgeoning independent living market and provides critical insights for investors, developers, and policymakers navigating this exciting sector. As India stands on the brink of a senior care revolution, the need for innovative, scalable solutions has never been more urgent. The 5th ASLI Ageing Fest marks a pivotal moment in the growth of India’s senior care industry, offering a platform to explore new opportunities, exchange ideas, and lay the foundation for a future that ensures dignity, care, and fulfilment for the elderly.

“The Longitudinal Ageing Study of India (LASI) reveals that 26.7% of urban elderly live either alone, with only their spouse, or with people other than their spouses or children, highlighting the pressing need for specialized senior living solutions. This trend is especially significant given the rising number of single seniors, particularly women, who have longer life expectancy, and a shift in societal attitudes toward more independent living arrangements. As awareness and acceptance of senior living solutions rises, this sector which is currently at just 1.3% market penetration presents an unprecedented opportunity for developers and investors alike to build quality-driven solutions. As per JLL-ASLI report a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27% is projected, which presents a unique opportunity for India to develop a robust, compassionate senior care ecosystem that not only meets the evolving needs of its elderly population but also fosters sustainable, long-term industry growth” said Mr. Ankur Gupta, Co-Founder, ASLI and Joint Managing Director, Ashiana Housing.

This evolving market offers a diverse range of housing solutions and services tailored for individuals in this population bracket, focusing on fostering independence, social interaction, and ease of living. The care spectrum encompasses diverse options, from independent living communities to assisted living facilities, specialized memory care units for those with cognitive challenges, and comprehensive Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). This comprehensive approach enables seniors to seamlessly adjust their level of support as their requirements evolve, ensuring they can age gracefully in a supportive setting.

The global demographic landscape is undergoing a significant shift, with the elderly population experiencing unprecedented growth. India, celebrated for its youthful demographic, is no exception to this phenomenon of population ageing. As of 2024, India's over-60 population stands at a staggering 156.7 million – the world's second-largest elderly cohort – despite comprising only 11% of the nation's total populace. This number is projected to skyrocket, more than doubling to an estimated 346 million by 2050. As India navigates this unprecedented transition, the country stands poised to become a global leader in senior living solutions, potentially setting new standards for aging populations worldwide.

In a testament to its burgeoning potential, India's senior living sector has witnessed a remarkable surge over the past decade, with more than 20,000 specialized units now established across the nation. This milestone marks a pivotal moment in the country's approach to senior care and real estate development.

The landscape is dominated by independent living facilities, which make up an impressive 85% of the total inventory, reflecting the growing demand for autonomy among India's senior citizens. Recognizing the potential in this niche market, senior living developers and operators are now consistently expanding their portfolios with an array of senior-friendly housing options, tailored to meet the diverse requirements of India's ageing population.

In a testament to regional demographic shifts, Southern India has emerged as the epicentre of the country's senior living boom, commanding an impressive 60% of the national market share. The southern states, long at the forefront of India's development trajectory, are experiencing accelerated population aging due to sustained lower fertility and mortality rates. Secondly, these regions are home to a larger proportion of parents whose children are Non-Resident Indians (NRIs). These demographic and cultural factors have cultivated a fertile ground for the senior living sector to flourish.

India's senior living market stands on the cusp of a revolution, with its current 1.3% penetration rate revealing a vast, untapped potential. This figure pales in comparison to mature markets like the United States and Australia, where penetration rates soar beyond 6%, highlighting an immense opportunity for growth and innovation in India.

“India's senior living sector is on the cusp of a revolution. By 2030, we are looking at a target market of 2.3 million households, up from 1.57 million in 2024. This is not just about numbers; it is about a new generation of seniors who are redefining retirement. They are independent, financially secure, globally aware, and socially active. We are forecasting a doubling of senior living inventory in just six years, with market penetration jumping from 1.3% to 2.5%. But here is the kicker – even this dramatic growth will not meet the surging demand. This gap is not just a challenge; it is a golden opportunity for long-term growth in this vibrant, emerging sector," said Dr Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research and REIS, India, JLL

“India's senior living market is at a transformative juncture, presenting a landscape ripe with opportunity. With a current penetration rate of just 1.3%, compared to over 6% in mature markets like the United States and Australia, we are witnessing the dawn of a new era in senior care led real estate development. This rapid expansion is underscored by the establishment of over 20,000 specialized units across the nation in the past decade, marking a significant shift in India's approach to elder care. Despite over USD 40 million in institutional investments in the last two years, the market remains in its nascent stages. The sector's current developmental phase, characterized by regulatory, operational, and awareness challenges, only enhances its appeal to strategic investors looking for high-growth potential. The coming years will see innovative solutions, increased investment, and a fundamental reimagining of senior living in India," said Karan Singh Sodi, Senior Managing Director - Mumbai MMR & Gujarat, and Head – Alternatives, India, JLL

Today’s senior citizens, unlike previous generations, seek to redefine retirement and senior living, opting for fulfilling lifestyles that align with their personal aspirations. This evolving landscape offers a promising investment frontier, particularly in markets like India where the supply of senior living facilities significantly lags the growing demand. The substantial gap between current offerings and market needs creates an attractive entry point for investors. By developing innovative senior living communities, investors can not only address this unmet demand but also potentially realize significant returns in this expanding market segment.

As this evolution progresses, the Indian senior living market is anticipated to approach penetration levels similar to those observed in more established markets globally, reflecting a transformative period in India's eldercare landscape. India's demographic shift presents complex challenges that require innovative solutions for a sustainable and inclusive future across all generations. This transition demands forward-thinking policies, upgraded infrastructure, and strategic long-term planning. India’s senior living sector is not just an investment opportunity – it is a chance to be at the forefront of a social and economic revolution.

*Senior living stock refers to the total inventory of housing units available for older adults