India's senior living sector has evolved from a nascent concept into a compelling investment opportunity, driven by unstoppable demographic forces and changing socio-economic dynamics. With organised supply reaching 22,157 units as of June 2025, the market demonstrates accelerated post-pandemic growth and increased investor confidence.

The numbers tell a powerful story: India's senior population (aged 60+) is projected to surge from 162.2 million in 2025 to 191.5 million by 2030, eventually doubling to 346.0 million by 2050. This translates to potential demand expanding from 1.7 million households in 2025 to 2.3 million by 2030.

Despite robust occupancy rates of 80-85% in well-managed projects, national penetration remains remarkably low at just 1.4% compared to mature markets like the US (6-7%) or New Zealand (14-15%). This gap represents vast untapped potential in a market where changing social norms, nuclear families, and the need for specialised care are reshaping traditional eldercare models.

The significant disconnect between potential demand and current supply necessitates massive capital infusion across three distinct scenarios. Our JLL Supply Activation Matrix models capital requirements from 2025-2030 based on varying levels of developer confidence, policy support, and institutional participation.

The baseline scenario assumes cautious developer participation due to high capital costs and uneven policy implementation, requiring 14,900 additional units. Accelerated growth anticipates increased institutional investor entry improving project viability and steady launch acceleration, demanding 25,500 units.

The policy-led boom scenario envisions a national framework mirroring Maharashtra's incentives, unlocking lower-cost financing and fast-tracked approvals. This would drive 34,600 new units and achieve 2.5% market penetration, representing a USD 8 billion market valuation by 2030.