Debt markets surge to record highs, signaling liquidity cycle on the rise

CHICAGO, June 9, 2026 – A powerful new commercial real estate liquidity cycle continues apace as a hyper-competitive debt market and expanding investor bidding pools signal a turning point for global property markets. This is according to JLL’s newly expanded suite of capital indicators, powered by the firm’s proprietary data: The Global Credit Intensity Index, which tracks active lenders and competitiveness of loan terms, and Global Bid Intensity Index, measuring real-time buyer activity. Drawing on JLL’s proprietary dataset of nearly $9 trillion investment sales bids and loan quotes, the combined indices offer a comprehensive, forward-looking view on commercial real estate capital markets activity across investment sales and credit markets.

Global credit competition soared to an all-time high in April 2026, fuelled by a massive wave of refinancing and large loan placements. With a near-record number of distinct lenders active across all capital sources, lenders are competing to place capital and are expanding their risk tolerance. This robust appetite has triggered a notable rise in winning loan-to-value (LTV) rates as lenders seek to deploy more capital.

Simultaneously, investment sales competitiveness showed steady improvement over the past year. Following some seasonal softening to start the year, the weight of capital active in the transaction market is rising as investors are drawn to the strong relative value proposition of commercial real estate, even amid a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

“We are seeing a hyper-competitive financing environment,” said Richard Bloxam, CEO, Capital Markets, JLL. “The sheer volume of debt capital chasing yield is near all-time highs, and lenders are moving aggressively to win business. When you combine this highly competitive debt environment with a steady rebuilding of investor bidding pools, it’s clear that a powerful new liquidity cycle is underway.”

• Lender Appetite at Near-Record Levels: The number of distinct lenders actively submitting quotes on loans remains near all-time highs, with April 2026 showing some of the strongest lender participation on record. To stand out in a crowded market, lenders are increasingly competing on terms, driving a rise in average winning bank loan-to-value rates since the start of the year.
• Bidders Return with Discipline: Bidding dynamics are on the rise, driven by an increase in the number of unique capital sources bidding on transaction processes. While bidding pools are expanding, actual pricing competitiveness on individual transactions still lags peak 2021 levels by a notable margin.
• Bid-Ask Spread Stabilizes: While a gap between buyer and seller expectations persists on a number of transactions—including the U.S. multi-housing sector where rent growth has been more subdued—the overall global bid-ask spread has narrowed significantly since the market trough in 2023. This sustained stability over the past year demonstrates a strong foundation of pricing alignment, paving the way for a more predictable and steady transaction environment in the months ahead.
• Diverging Forces: Since early 2025, a divergence has been evident between the credit and investment sales markets. Competitiveness and market activity in the credit markets are rising more sharply than bidder competitiveness. This is partially accounted for by an above-average share of refinancing activity relative to new acquisitions.
   

“The credit markets globally are currently acting as a significant catalyst for this recovery, providing vital optionality for property owners facing loan maturities,” said Trey Morsbach, Head of US Debt Advisory, Capital Markets, JLL. “As debt is successfully refinanced and pricing stability further takes hold across major property sectors, we expect this competitive lender appetite to fuel a broader and active acquisition market in the second half of the year.”

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The Global Bid Intensity Index measures investment sales competitiveness through the number of unique bidders on a transaction and the relationship between winning bids and asking prices. The Global Credit Intensity Index measures debt market intensity through the number of unique lenders quoting on loan opportunities and the average winning loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Together, these indices create a comprehensive liquidity monitoring system and provide unmatched early signals ahead of the rest of the market.