URA releases flash estimate of 2nd Quarter 2024 private residential property price index

SINGAPORE, July 1, 2024 – The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released the flash estimate of the price index for private residential property for 2nd Quarter 2024 today.

A summary of the price trends is provided in the Appendix.

Ms. Chia Siew Chuin, Head of Residential Research, Research & Consultancy at JLL 谢岫君, 私宅市场研究部主管 (新加坡) commented:

The overall private residential price index rose by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 2Q24, marking the second straight quarter of a slowdown in price increase, following the 2.8% rise in 4Q23 and the 1.4% gain in 1Q24.

The slower increase in the overall price index in 2Q24 appears to be in line with the subdued sales momentum of private residential units. Amidst a broader array of options and increased price levels, buyers have grown more discerning in their homebuying decision-making process. The postponement of US interest rate cuts may have also dampened market sentiment.

Preliminary caveat records from the URA Real Estate Information System (REALIS) show that overall private homes sales fell 5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 2Q24. With limited major new launches in 2Q24, developer sales plunged 42% from 1Q24, resulting in the proportion of new sales dropping markedly in 2Q24 to 16.9%, the lowest since the tracking of primary market sales data started in 1Q04.

Private home prices have surged 35.8% since 1Q20 when the market was weighed down by COVID-19 pandemic, and further strong quarterly rises may be unsustainable since prices could reach resistance levels.

The overall private home price increase in 2Q24 was led by the price growth in the landed segment, which remained supported by local upgrading aspirations, limited supply, and increased construction costs. However, the effect of price inertia became evident as the rate of price increase continued to moderate to 1.8% q-o-q following the quarterly increases of 4.6% in 4Q23 and 2.6% in 1Q24.

Prices in the non-landed segment also slowed further to 0.9% q-o-q from 1.0% in 1Q24 and 2.3% in 4Q23. The rise in non-landed property prices was driven by properties in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), where prices rose 2.2% q-o-q. However, the price gain was tempered by the marginal price increase of 0.3% q-o-q in the Outside Central Region (OCR) and the price correction of 0.2% q-o-q in the Core Central Region (CCR) during the same period.

Preliminary caveat data shows that while secondary market private home sales improved across all the three market segments in 2Q24, primary market home sales remained subdued. However, diverse factors accounted for the price changes in the three market segments.

Caveat records show that amid the limited major fresh project launches (The Hill @ One-North and The Hillshore) in the RCR, new home sales in the market segment fell 11% q-o-q to 209 units in 2Q24. However, the median price of new non-landed homes increased 2.1% during the quarter to $2,616 psf. The median price of resale non-landed homes also strengthened by 2.6% q-o-q. The number of caveats lodged for non-landed homes of at least $2,500 psf correspondingly edged up from 175 transactions in 1Q24 to 184 in 2Q24. These contributed to the gain in price index for non-landed homes in the RCR.

Preliminary caveat data shows that new sales in OCR fell 53% q-o-q to 387 units in 2Q24. The slower new sales momentum will add to the number of unsold units from launched projects in the OCR which had increased 21% from 1,120 units in 4Q23 and more than doubled the total in 1Q23 to 1,353 units in 1Q24. Furthermore, the number of non-landed private homes in the OCR that sold for a minimum of $2,000 psf fell by 52% q-o-q to 369 units in 2Q24. With more options available to highly selective and cautious buyers, coupled with the absence of price-leading projects entering the market, there was limited stimulus for uplift in home prices in the OCR. This is despite underlying upgrading demand from HDB households and the HDB resale price index rising 2.1% in 2Q24, faster than the 1.8% q-o-q rise in the previous quarter.

In 2Q24, the launch momentum in the CCR picked up slightly, including two new projects –

32 Gilstead and Skywaters Residences – that were placed in the market when demand is still diluted with the hike in Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty for property investors and foreign buyers. Hence, despite a unit in Skywaters being sold at $6,100 psf, the general lack of price-driving projects, combined with discounts extended by developers in some projects to move sales, have put greater pressure on CCR home prices. Developer sales in the quarter declined to 83 units from 106 units in 1Q24. The CCR also saw the overall sales of non-landed homes transacted at above $3,000 psf decline from 125 units in 1Q24 to 104 units in 2Q24.

Following a 2.5% increase in the overall private residential property price index in 1H24, JLL Research is watchfully expectant of a 3% - 4% rise in private home prices for the whole 2024, a moderation from the 6.8% growth in 2023.

Local demand for private housing is expected to stay resilient, bolstered by prevailing low unemployment rates, healthy household balance sheets and upgrading aspirations. However, overall buyer affordability remains constrained, and buyer resistance is likely to rise due to persistently high interest rates and elevated housing prices amid ample choices.

Nevertheless, buyers’ confidence may strengthen as economic conditions are expected to improve, coupled with the potential interest rate easing in the later part of 2024. A robust launch pipeline should also stimulate home sales and support prices.

Unless unforeseen events arise, new project prices are expected to remain steady. Developers are likely to maintain sensitive pricing strategies, focusing on keeping overall price quantum affordable to drive sales. Projects in attractive locations and with desirable product attributes have the potential to lead in pricing.

The changes in the price indices for the different market segments between 1Q24 and 2Q24 are tabulated below:

Source: URA, JLL Research