JLL commentary on URA 4Q25 real estate statistics

SINGAPORE, 23 January 2026 – The Urban Redevelopment Authority released statistics on the residential, office and retail property market for 4Q25.

Chia Siew Chuin, Head of Residential Research, Research & Consultancy, Singapore

谢岫君, 私宅市场研究部主管 (新加坡) commented:

Singapore's private residential market closes 2025 with enduring strength, balancing record sales with moderated price growth

Singapore's private residential market concluded a resilient year in 2025, demonstrating fundamental strength as robust buyer demand propelled transaction volumes to a multi-year high, even as price appreciation softened to a more sustainable pace.

According to the latest URA data, overall private home prices increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 4Q25. This resulted in a full-year price gain of 3.3% for 2025, a more tempered rise compared to the 3.9% seen in 2024 and the most gradual annual increase in five years. Notably, this brings the total escalation in private home prices to 42.3% over a consecutive streak from 1Q20 to 4Q25, reflecting a sustained, policy-calibrated trajectory of growth – distinct from rapid speculation-driven cycles seen in less regulated markets.

This sustained market stability and measured pace of growth are largely a result of the government's proactive management and calibrated policy measures, which have effectively steered the market away from speculative volatility.

Placing this market performance within its unique policy context, Chia Siew Chuin, Head of Residential Research, Research & Consultancy, Singapore, explains, "Fundamentally, Singapore's private residential market is not a laissez-faire arena for speculation, prone to dramatic booms and busts. Instead, it operates as a carefully managed ecosystem that is deeply influenced by state stewardship, geared towards long-term, stable appreciation. In this context, the key objective and characteristic of the market is not 'explosive growth,' but rather its 'resilience and ability to navigate through economic cycles.'"

The year's dynamics were heavily influenced by improved affordability from lower interest rates and a fresh pipeline of new developments that successfully tapped into latent buyer demand, especially in the second half of the year. Buying demand in 2025 was driven predominantly by local buyers, with domestic purchasers accounting for the bulk of new home transactions in a landscape shaped by tightened rules on home purchases by foreigners. In 4Q25, Singaporean buyers made up 84.0% of all private residential transactions (excluding executive condominiums or ECs), up from 74.0% in 1Q23 before the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) hike in April 2023. Conversely, foreign buyers constituted a mere 1.2% in 4Q25, compared to 6.4% in 1Q23. Permanent residents accounted for 14.5% of transactions in 4Q25.

"The narrative for 2025 was one of a remarkable turnaround. Following a subdued second quarter, the market gained significant momentum, fuelled by stronger-than-expected economic expansion, a more favourable interest rate environment and a supply of new projects that were well-aligned with buyer expectations," said Chia. "Surpassing 10,000 units in new home sales for the first time in four years clearly signals the deep-seated confidence and purchasing power that continues to support housing demand."

New home sales surge to a four-year zenith
 

The most notable story of 2025 was the exceptional performance in the primary market. Developers sold 10,815 new units (excluding ECs), nearly doubling the 6,469 units from 2024 and reaching the highest annual sales volume in four years. Importantly, this tally nearly matches the annual average of 10,974 new homes sold from 2019 to 2021, prior to significant market cooling measures – macroprudential interventions in December 2021 and September 2022, and the ABSD hike in April 2023. Although sales activity eased 10.6% q-o-q in 4Q25 to 2,940 units due to fewer launches and seasonal holidays, the annual result reflects the powerful draw of new products, supported by a stable employment landscape and strengthened household balance sheets. Years of sustained economic growth have bolstered household liquidity, while intergenerational wealth transfers have further amplified purchasing capacity, creating substantial purchasing power that continues to fuel homebuying activity.

Secondary market holds steady amidst primary market surge
 

In contrast to the dynamic primary market, secondary market transaction volumes remained remarkably stable throughout 2025. Total resale activity closed the year at 14,622 units, up 4.0% from the volume recorded in 2024. This consistency highlights the resilience of the resale segment, which continues to serve as the bedrock of the housing market for genuine homebuyers. Demand in this segment is consistently driven by those with immediate housing needs, buyers seeking properties in established locations with limited new supply, and families in search of the larger living spaces often found in older developments.

A key indicator of market health was the subdued level of sub-sale transactions, which remained negligible despite the strong underlying buying sentiment. Such transactions totalled 1,055 units or 6.7% of total secondary market transactions in 2025. This trend is a direct result of the government’s robust Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) framework, which effectively curbs speculative activity. The recent adjustments to the SSD, including the extension of the holding period, have reinforced its role as a powerful deterrent against property "flipping." The near absence of short-term speculative trading, even as the primary market surged, underscores the effectiveness of these calibrated measures in anchoring the residential market firmly to long-term fundamentals.

Unsold inventory shrinks to a low
 

The robust sales momentum throughout 2025 led to a contraction in available supply, with the inventory of unsold private homes falling to a low of 15,007 units by the year's end. This represents a notably low level of supply, which could be fully absorbed in just over two years based on the average annual developer sales of 6,663 units recorded between 2022 and 2024, and is a substantial 23.5% decline from 19,606 units at the close of 2024.

This dwindling supply has implications for the year ahead, compelling developers to proactively replenish their land banks to secure their future project pipeline. However, this search for new sites is expected to be focused primarily on the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, which offers a more transparent and straightforward acquisition process. The private collective sales market, in contrast, remains stalled by persistent challenges. Chief among these is a significant price stalemate, with the high price expectations of owners clashing with developers' more cautious bids, which are tempered by elevated construction costs and compressed profit margins. Furthermore, the inherent complexities and uncertainties in achieving the requisite owner consensus for an en-bloc sale make it a far riskier proposition. This strategic preference for GLS sites will channel competition towards open land tenders, underpinning their values and ensuring a more predictable and measured pipeline of new projects, which aligns with the market's overall move towards sustainable growth.

Price dynamics shaped by regional divergence
 

Price gains in 4Q25 were largely propelled by the landed property segment, where price growth quickened to 3.4% q-o-q. Conversely, the non-landed segment experienced a marginal 0.2% q-o-q dip. Over the full year, landed home values expanded by a strong 7.6%, while non-landed prices posted a more modest 2.3% increase.

A breakdown of the non-landed market reveals distinct regional trends:

Core Central Region (CCR): Prices corrected by 3.5% q-o-q in the 4Q25, interrupting a year-long growth streak, though full-year prices still finished with a 1.9% gain.

Rest of Central Region (RCR): This segment posted a 0.7% q-o-q price increase, contributing to a 1.6% rise for the entire year.

Outside Central Region (OCR): The suburban market was the top performer, with prices advancing 1.0% q-o-q in 4Q25 and achieving a 3.2% increase for the full year.

Chia added, "The fourth quarter performance underscored the market's increasing sensitivity to pricing and value. The moderation in CCR prices was indicative of developers' astute, strategic pricing for new launches. This dynamic, contrasted with steady appreciation in the city-fringe and suburbs, points to a healthy recalibration where buyers are carefully assessing value propositions across all segments."

The changes in URA’s price indices in 4Q25 are tabulated below.

URA Private Residential Property Price Index Q-o-Q Changes

Source: URA, JLL Research

Two-speed rental market emerges as affordability caps suburban rents
 

The private rental market showed signs of broad stabilisation in late 2025. While the overall rental index registered a marginal 0.5% decline in 4Q25, the index for the full year still recorded a modest 1.9% gain. This price moderation occurred even as market fundamentals appeared to tighten significantly. The islandwide vacancy rate fell from 6.9% to 6.0% in 4Q25, fuelled by robust net new demand of 5,027 units which far outstripped the low net new supply of just 1,696 units during the quarter. This suggests that while underlying demand for rental accommodation remains healthy, the market as a whole is reaching an affordability ceiling, preventing the tight supply conditions from translating into further rental growth.

These dynamics are revealed in the divergent performance across different market segments. In the prime CCR and city-fringe RCR, strong net demand pushed vacancy rates down to 8.8% and 6.0% respectively in 4Q25. This robust demand supported rental values, with CCR rents increasing by 0.7% q-o-q and RCR rents by 0.6% q-o-q. Conversely, in the suburban OCR, despite having the tightest vacancy rate on the island at just 4.9%, OCR rents fell by 2.0% q-o-q. This shows that while a 'flight to centrality' is supporting rents in prime areas, the tenant base in the suburbs has hit a firm affordability wall, compelling landlords to lower asking rents even in a tight market.

Chia added, "The data confirms a two-speed rental market. In the central regions, strong leasing demand continues to support rental values. The more significant development is in the OCR, where the rental decline, despite low vacancy, indicates that tenants have reached their affordability limits. This has resulted in an erosion of pricing power for landlords in the mass-market segment."

Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research and Consultancy, Southeast Asia

蔡炎亮博士, 研究与咨询部主管 (东南亚) commented:

Office rents firming
 

The URA office rental index for the Central Region ended the year on a positive note, rising 0.4% q-o-q in 4Q25. This represented a turnaround from the declines of 0.3% and 0.1% recorded in 2Q25 and 3Q25, respectively.

For the whole of 2025, office rentals in the Central Region increased by 0.3%, after remaining unchanged in 2024. This culminated in two consecutive years of sub-1% annual growth, marking the longest period of modest rental variation since URA began tracking this data series.

This subdued performance reflected two key factors. First, high interest rates restricted business expansion, with companies struggling to secure HQ approval for new capex. Second, supply pressure emerged from new and secondary spaces. IOI Central Boulevard Towers (IOI CBTS) completed in 3Q24 with 1.26 million sq ft while Keppel South Central (KSC) followed in 1Q25 with another 0.6 million sq ft to fill. Concurrent consolidation and right-sizing activities over the last two years also created secondary spaces requiring backfilling.

However, both of these factors have largely diminished by 2H25. Interest rates have now eased to a more investment-friendly level, while most of the previously available office spaces are being filled. IOI CBTS is over 95% filled while KSC is almost 35% committed. Vacant spaces at South Beach, Marina One, and Capital Square were also absorbed by new tenants or existing occupiers expanding within their buildings.

Based on JLL's latest research, CBD Grade A office rents saw growth picking up to over 1% per quarter in the last two quarters of 2025 after registering five straight quarters of flattish growth from 2Q24 to 2Q25. JLL’s CBD Grade A rents stood at SGD 11.98 per sq ft per month as of 4Q25, the highest level in 17 years. But they are still about 20% below the historical high rents recorded in 2008.

Positive but moderate outlook for 2026
 

Global economic conditions have held up better than expected in 2025 and is expected to stay resilient in 2026. The Singapore Department of Statistics’ latest Business Expectations Survey for the Services Sector (4Q 2025) reported an overall net weighted balance of +10% of firms expecting a more favourable business outlook for the period of October 2025 to March 2026. This is an improvement from the +2% overall net weighted balance recorded in the preceding period from July to December 2025. Most industries within the services sector expressed positive sentiments on their business conditions, including the Information & Communication (+21%) and Professional Services (+10%) sectors, which traditionally drive office demand.

On the supply side, new stock in 2026 is limited. The only major new completion is the redevelopment of Shaw Tower (0.4 million sq ft), which is on track to complete in mid-2026. Separately, 39 Robinson is expected to complete its refurbishment by year-end, but will contribute only about 0.1 million sq ft of office space.

With demand strengthening and supply tightening, tenants will increasingly compete for the same limited space in quality CBD office buildings. This would enable landlords to secure replacement tenants before current occupants vacate, thereby reducing vacancy exposure and maintaining their pricing power. Rental growth is thus expected to continue to pick up in 2026.

Despite this optimism, we maintain a moderate 2026 forecast of 4-5% growth given the already elevated base. Geopolitical uncertainties also persist, especially with renewed US policy pressure as the administration seeks to achieve major milestones before the November 2026 mid-term elections.

Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research and Consultancy, Southeast Asia

蔡炎亮博士, 研究与咨询部主管 (东南亚) commented:

Singapore retail property market remains resilient, but costs and consumer sentiment keep the spotlight on occupancy

URA’s latest indices show islandwide retail space rent growth slid to 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25 as compared to the 0.9% in the previous quarter. Prices of retail spaces on the other hand, moved up by 1.7% quarter-on-quarter reversing the decline of 0.7% previously; tenant demand remains steady as landlords step up upgrades and repositioning.

Singapore’s retail property market continued to show steady underlying demand, even as retailers navigate a more challenging operating environment. High operating costs—including labour, utilities, and fit-out expenses – remain a key pressure point for retailers and are contributing to more active tenant churn in some locations.

According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA)’s latest real estate statistics, the rental index for private retail space rose by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) i.e., 1.9% y-o-y , while the price index for retail space increased by 1.7% q-o-q in 4Q 2025 i.e., 3.0% y-o-y. This increase in price is largely lifted by growth in the Central Region and Fringe while rents were driven by those in the Central Area. 

Island-wide retail vacancy tightened by 60bps to 6.3% as at end-4Q 2025, a result of two drivers – withdrawal of stock and increased demand, from 22,000sqm in 3Q25 to 34,000 sqm in 4Q25. The demand resilience is a reflection of retailers’ confidence in the consumer market and landlord’s proactive improvements to their assets.

“In a mature retail market like Singapore, occupancy trends and tenant stability are increasingly important indicators of performance—not just the headline rent numbers,” said Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research & Consultancy, SEA, JLL Singapore. “With operating costs already elevated, retailers are more sensitive to total occupancy costs, and that naturally places a ceiling on how far rents can rise without affecting sustainability.”

Occupancy will be the key watchpoint into 2026
 

While some retailers have consolidated footprints or exited certain locations, new concepts continue to enter the market. However, frequent tenant turnover can affect the overall shopper experience and, over time, the perceived quality and identity of a mall.

Looking ahead, occupancy will be closely watched as a forward-looking indicator of retail space demand. With consumer sentiment softer and the global growth outlook moderating, households may stay more selective on discretionary spending in the near term—potentially tempering rental growth momentum and space expansion plans.

Consumer confidence remains broadly neutral but has weakened year over year. Recent consumer sentiment data suggests a cautious backdrop. Ipsos’ latest reading puts Singapore’s Consumer Confidence Index at 50.8 in November 2025, around the neutral 50-point mark, but notably weaker compared with a year earlier. Current conditions and investment-related confidence declined by 3.4 points and 3.7 points, respectively, reflecting subdued perceptions of personal finances and the local economy, as well as reduced willingness to make big-ticket purchases. Household cautionary stance amid global economic uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures is likely to remain in the near term.

“Employment conditions have remained comparatively steadier than other components of confidence, and that should continue to support retail formats that benefit from office catchments and commuter footfall. We have seen strong gains in prices of retail spaces in the Central Area as URA data suggests. The full year price growth of 6% in 2025 is the highest on record since data series started in 2011, while the 2.7% y-y in rental growth is second after the peak of 3.3% in 2019,” added Dr Chua.

E-commerce is firmly embedded and landlords are responding
 

Digital shopping continues to reshape retail behaviour alongside physical spending. In November 2025, online retail sales accounted for 16.9% of total retail sales value in Singapore, underscoring how deeply online channels are embedded in consumer habits.

Singapore’s compact urban design and strong transport connectivity help maintain the relevance of physical retail, particularly in suburban hubs that serve large residential catchments. Even so, mall owners are stepping up rejuvenation efforts to stay relevant to younger, digitally native consumers. This has contributed to continued market repositioning and strategic transactions in the retail space. Recent examples include:

• Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s announced acquisition of a 70% interest in PLQ Mall via units in the trust that owns the asset;
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust’s move to acquire Northpoint City South Wing, consolidating full ownership and enabling holistic asset enhancement and tenant mix strategies; and
• Frasers Property’s acquisition of the Yishun 10 cinema complex, which may support longer-term value discovery and future plans for the site.
   

“We expect landlords to stay proactive, through upgrades, repositioning and selective acquisitions, to unlock value from ageing assets and keep malls relevant,” said Dr Chua.

Outlook: modest rental upside, stable-to-firmer investment sentiment
 

JLL expects rental upside to remain modest at 0.5-1.5% for 2026, given heightened retailer sensitivity to total occupancy costs. However, as borrowing costs ease from recent highs, improved liquidity and investor appetite could continue to support transaction activity and prices—particularly for well-located assets with strong footfall fundamentals and clear repositioning potential.

Institutional investors, REITs, and family offices are expected to remain active, focusing on portfolio enhancement strategies including asset repositioning, refurbishment, or redevelopment where feasible. This could keep prices growth in or slightly outpace rental, resulting in stable yields.