Industrial property market standing strong against headwinds

SINGAPORE, 26 January 2023 - JTC’s statistics released today showed Singapore’s industrial property rents and prices grew for the ninth consecutive quarter in 4Q22 to post the highest annual growths in 10 years.

Except for the single-user factory segment, JTC’s rent indices for the multiple-user factory, business park and warehouse premises accelerated q-o-q in 4Q22. It is likely that the effects of the 3.0% y-o-y contraction in manufacturing output in 4Q22, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on 3 January 2023, have yet to filter through to the broader industrial property market.

While industrial prices continued to trend north, surging interest rates and heightened macroeconomic uncertainties appeared to have slowed the pace of growth in 4Q22. Based on JTC’s data, the all-industrial property price index rose by 1.7% q-o-q in 4Q22, moderating from the 2.0% q-o-q growth posted in 3Q22.

For full-year 2022, the multiple-user factory and logistics/warehouse segments recorded the fastest rent growths of 8.3% and 7.9%, respectively, to their highest in 10 years. We believe this is driven largely by the supply crunch for good quality and high specification industrial space. Net absorption for multiple-factory space in 2022 is the highest to-date, while the 4Q22 island-wide warehouse vacancy rate tightened to 8.3% - the lowest level in eight years.

On asset prices, keen acquisition interest by investors looking to rebalance their portfolio with higher yielding assets such as logistics/warehouse properties amid the rising interest rate environment fuelled a 7.5% growth in the JTC’s all-industrial property price index in 2022, the highest in 10 years.

We are maintaining our view that island-wide industrial rent and price growth could ease from 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively in 2022, to within 5% in 2023.

We expect the dimmer macroeconomic outlook including a projected contraction in manufacturing output growth, rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions to weigh on business confidence and temper rent growth in 2023. The higher supply pipeline, estimated at around 1.5 million sqm (net floor area) in 2023, up from the 1.3 million sqm of net space addition in 2022 could also help to ease upward pressure on rents. 

Moderating rent growth, coupled with rising interest rates, could in turn, slow price growth in 2023.