The year ahead – what does 2026 have in store?

What interests me most is visiting markets, touring buildings. You have to “sniff” real estate to really know what’s going on. It’s not about just looking at the numbers, it’s being able to factor in “sentiment” which is the bane of our life as researchers when coming up with forecasts!

So what do I think matters for 2026? Something I have mentioned multiple times on TV, on stage, to you, our clients. The bifurcation of markets. That relates to markets in general and also real estate markets. New York, I’ve spent a considerable time in, in 2025. If you look at vacancy, it appears to have it. The reality, if you were a major bank looking for quality space, you would have a challenge. Vacancy mostly exists in assets that are not future proofed.

If we look at the major markets in APAC. We’ve run the numbers, rents are up 11.2% post COVID in “future proofed” Grade A assets, assets with LEED Gold or above, a gym possibly in the building…basically amenity is key. Compare that with standard Grade A and that’s still down close to 6%.

What are you telling us? It’s pretty stark, in a good way for APAC! 56% of you as occupiers and also investors, expect real estate market conditions to get better in APAC in the next 6 months. Compare that to 33% in EMEA and 37% in The Americas. I think we are in a pretty good place! This is the Asian Century, by 2030 40% of GDP will come from Asia Pacific, compare that with 32% from America and 24% from EMEA.

APAC rents might be off 3.3% from pre-COVID peaks in aggregate. However, if you look, market by market, almost all APAC markets are considerably up on post-COVID peaks, other than China. When it comes to China, I see a real future focus on major stand-out markets like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong. This is a potential “sweet spot” for investors to get in and acquire trophy assets that they would never be able to catch in the past. However, volumes are very low now coming from international investors at this point, most investment is domestic. I’d “watch this space,” most investors are standing on the sidelines. Once a large international investor “pulls the trigger,” we may see a lot of followers. Having just got back from Shanghai with the team, there is a lot of energy coming back. However, certainly the geopolitical situation for now is holding things back.

India right now is a juggernaut. You can see and feel it on the ground when you’re there. Definitely expect momentum to continue there.

Southeast Asia is definitely, and will, continue to, benefit from “China plus X” momentum. The amount of work we are doing consultancy wise there (always a precursor to down the line action from investors and occupiers) is proof of what’s to come.

I see good momentum continuing in 2026. If I did have a worry, it would be AI. It’s definitely “a game changer,” however pricing is potentially high and the benefits are possibly not quite there “yet” on the ground, however, it’s coming, and fast.

APAC real estate will set a very positive course forwards in 2026. The only thing that will put us off course could be “the unexpected” on the geopolitical front.

Sensibly speaking, I see a positive year ahead when it comes to the fundamentals that drive the real estate world. 165 million more people will live in our cities here in the next 5 years. These people will all need somewhere to sleep, work, shop and also play – all of that will require real estate.