Insight Office Nordics Autumn 2026

• Investment recovery remains uneven across markets: Nordic office investment reached €3,718m in H1 2026 (+6% YoY), representing 19% of the total Nordic transaction market. Sweden (+7% to €2,509m), Norway (+7% to €753m) and Denmark (+16% to €403m) all grew, while Finland fell sharply (-51% to just €53m)—a record low for the market.
• Flight to quality drives a widening two-tier leasing market: Vacancy hit record or multi-year highs in several capitals—Stockholm (16.1%), Gothenburg (14.7%, also a record) and Malmö (17.7% ex-Lund)—driven almost entirely by new supply and softness in outer submarkets, while CBD vacancy stayed comparatively low (e.g. Stockholm CBD at 8.6%) and prime rents held firm or rose.
• Yields diverge by geography and location tier: Prime CBD yields stayed broadly stable to slightly tightening in Sweden, Norway and Denmark (e.g. Stockholm CBD cut 10bps to 3.90%, Copenhagen CBD steady at 4.00%), while Finland's prime yield widened further to 5.75% and Oslo's fringe yields rose 50bps to 6.0%, underscoring investors' continued preference for prime, well-located assets.

Investment market

Stockholm office transaction volume was approximately SEK 12 billion in the first half of 2026, down 32 percent year-on-year. The national office market, by contrast, rose around 30 percent to SEK 33 billion, lifted by Castellum's SEK 13.3 billion sale of a Skåne portfolio to Wihlborgs. Stockholm's share of national office volume fell to 37 percent, from around 70 percent in 2025.

All Stockholm office transactions in the first half had domestic buyers, with international capital only on the sell-side. Swedish institutions were prominent buyers; the largest deal was Alecta's SEK 5 billion purchase of two office assets from Castellum. JLL cut prime CBD and Hagastaden yields by 10 basis points.

Tenant market

Stockholm's office vacancy rate reached 16.1 percent by mid 2026, the first time it has exceeded 16 percent since 2006, and was 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier. The increase was concentrated in outer submarkets: more than half of the roughly 135,000 square metres added over the year was in Kista, where vacancy reached 36 percent. Central vacancies were largely unchanged, with the CBD at 8.6 percent. Prime CBD rent was SEK 9,800 per square metre per year, a record high, up 3 percent year on-year. Top deals reached SEK 12,000, with a median CBD rent of SEK 7,900. Hagastaden was the main exception to otherwise stable submarket rents, with prime rent rising 11.5 percent to SEK 5,800, driven by project-related lettings.

Take-up exceeded 300,000 square metres in the first half, above the 240,000 to 260,000 recorded in the past three years. The increase was driven mainly by Ericsson's lettings of nearly 100,000 square metres in Hagastaden, from Atrium Ljungberg and Castellum. Much of this space is in projects not yet under construction, so it is not yet reflected in the stock or in vacancy.

Net absorption over the past 12 months was negative, at about 213,000 square metres, though marginally positive in the CBD. Terminations remained significant, but the trend of tenants contracting space or leaving the CBD has stalled. Office space under construction totalled about 208,000 square metres, with two completions in the quarter.

Outlook

New supply remains moderate. Office space under construction totals about 208,000 square metres, and completions over 2026 to 2028 average around 0.7 percent of stock per year. Almost two thirds of the space under construction is pre-let, limiting oversupply risk, although Frihamnen carries some unlet new space near term. Development in the CBD remains structurally constrained.

The two-tier market is likely to persist. Leasing conditions should remain tenant-favourable in the weaker outer submarkets, while the CBD is supported by limited supply and stable demand. Consensus growth for 2026 has been revised down to 2.1 percent, and financing conditions have eased, with the Riksbank holding its policy rate at 1.75 percent. Near-term absorption is likely to be driven more by relocations and quality upgrades than by employment growth.

Investment market

Gothenburg office investment recovered in the first half of 2026. Transaction volume reached approximately SEK 4.7 billion, compared with about SEK 0.4 billion in the whole of 2025, when offices were largely avoided in favour of logistics and residential assets. Notable deals included Balder's SEK 1.5 billion sale of its GoCo stake to Vectura, and Alecta Fastigheter's cross-border purchase of the Gårda offices from Technopolis. Office yields were unchanged, with the prime CBD yield at 4.55 percent.

Tenant market

Gothenburg's office vacancy rate reached 14.7 percent by mid-2026, up 1.5 percentage points over the year and the highest on record. The CBD at 15.7 percent sat above the regional average, as new supply is concentrated in the centre. Prime rents were unchanged across all submarkets, with the prime CBD rent at SEK 4,200 per square metre per year.

Take-up in the first half was close to 100,000 square metres, revised up through the period. It was driven mainly by the Police Authority's letting of 39,700 square metres at Ernst Fontells Plats. Central locations continued to attract most demand: around 70 percent of regional take-up over the past 12 months was in the CBD and Rest of Inner City, which hold about half of the stock. Net take-up in the CBD was positive over the year, at 13,000 square metres, but not enough to offset new supply, so vacancy continued to rise. Other CBD lettings included Mullvad VPN and Ramboll at Grand Central.

Outlook

New office supply is concentrated in central Gothenburg. Around 120,000 square metres is under construction across the region, most of it completing in 2027. The three CBD projects, together about 59,000 square metres and roughly 41 percent let, equal around 7 percent of CBD stock. Vacancy is likely to remain elevated and could rise further in 2027, giving tenants plenty of choice and leaving older, secondary buildings the hardest to let. With the labour market improving only gradually, leasing is expected to be driven more by relocations and flight to quality than by expansion.

Investment market

Malmö office investment volume rose to roughly SEK 9 billion in the first half of 2026, from about SEK 2.5 billion a year earlier. The increase was driven by Castellum's SEK 13.3 billion sale of its Skåne portfolio of 95 properties to Wihlborgs, of which offices account for 59 percent by value. Wihlborgs described it as a chance to add space with vacancies and development potential in a region it already manages. Net initial yield was stated at 5.0 percent, despite 15 percent vacancy. With half that vacancy, yield would increase to some 5.6 percent. Beyond this deal, office activity was limited; among the few other transactions, Volito bought Kronan 10 and 11 from a German pension fund for SEK 0.6 billion.

Tenant market

Malmö's office vacancy rate, excluding Lund, exceeded 17 percent by mid-2026, up more than 2 percentage points over the year and a historically high level. Roughly 300,000 square metres of office space is now vacant in Malmö, an increase of nearly 50,000 square metres over the year. Vacancy rose across all submarkets. Hyllie was the submarket with the highest vacancy rates; it rose despite positive net absorption, because new supply has expanded the submarket's stock by about 20 percent in two years. Lund was the clear exception, with low and broadly stable vacancies supported by positive net absorption over the year.

Prime rents were unchanged in 2026 but stood higher than a year earlier after minor upward adjustments in late 2025, primarily in Västra Hamnen but also in the CBD and other central locations. Median rents were flat to marginally lower, on few data points. Take-up in the first half was only about 20,000 square metres, around half the level of a year earlier and the weakest of the three major Swedish markets. Reported lettings were small and few, led by WSP and Tarsier Studios in the CBD. The labour market improved gradually, with unemployment at 8.3 percent in May, its lowest May level since 2023, though still high by national standards.

Outlook

New office supply is very limited. Two projects are under construction, totalling about 31,500 square metres: a fully let Skanska development in Lund, completing in the autumn, and an unlet Skanska project in Hyllie due in 2027. No new projects started in 2026 limit new supply being added to the market. This scarcity should support prime rents even as vacancy stays elevated, since little new space will add to tenant choice. Leasing is expected to stay concentrated in the main hubs and newer, well-connected space, while older buildings will increasingly need repositioning to remain relevant.

Investment market

The investment volume hit a record low of just €53 million during the first six months of 2026. The largest transaction was SRV's forward-funding sale of two new office buildings to Balder Finland for approximately €38.5 million, with the premises fully pre-let to Meyer Turku as its new headquarters. Investor demand in the office segment remains highly polarised, concentrated almost entirely on prime CBD assets and, selectively, a handful of other core submarkets. The prime yield widened to 5.75 percent in the first quarter and is expected to remain stable over the next 12 months.

Tenant market

The Finnish office tenant market entered 2026 facing continued bifurication, with vacancy rates in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) remaining elevated at approximately 18.3 percent through the first quarter. Submarket disparities persist: Keilaniemi (12.8 percent), Pasila (9.5 percent), and Hakaniemi (14.6 percent) continue to demonstrate relative resilience, while Sörnäinen (28.7 percent) and Pitäjänmäki (28.0 percent) struggle with severe oversupply. Net absorption in the opening months of 2026 remained negative, reflecting ongoing tenant consolidation and space optimisation strategies, though the pace of downsizing has moderated compared to 2024–2025. We anticipate that the majority of small and mid-size tenants have now completed their adjustment periods and found the right size for their office premises.

Prime CBD rental rates remained stable at €48.50 per square metre per month through spring 2026, unchanged from late 2025. This headline stability masks the reality of elevated incentive packages, as landlords compete intensively for quality tenants. However, leasing activity during Spring 2026 showed signs of improvement, particularly for modern, ESG-compliant space in prime locations with excellent public transport connectivity. The constrained development pipeline is gradually helping to address oversupply, though absorption of existing vacancy will require sustained momentum throughout 2026 and into 2027.

Outlook

The Finnish office market is expected to remain polarised through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. As macroeconomic conditions continue to improve, demand will increasingly concentrate on Grade A and B+, ESG-compliant buildings especially in the CBD, SBD, Pasila and Keilaniemi. Secondary and peripheral assets will face sustained pressure with elevated vacancy and rental headwinds.

Overall HMA vacancy rates are projected to remain in the 18.0 to 18.5 percent range through year-end 2026, with potential for gradual compression in 2027 as limited new supply and strengthening occupier confidence support absorption. Prime segment vacancies should stabilise or decline modestly in the second half of 2026.

Incentive packages are expected to remain elevated through the third quarter of 2026 before gradually compressing in the fourth quarter as competition for prime space intensifies.

The flight to quality will accelerate in the coming quarters, driven by intensifying tenant requirements for sustainability credentials, energy efficiency and workplace flexibility. Green leases and shared ESG performance responsibilities are rapidly becoming standard practice, widening the performance gap between modern and legacy assets. This trend will define market dynamics through 2027.

Investment market

Office accounted for approximately 32 percent of total investment volume in the first half of 2026, remaining below the historical average of just above 40 percent. One of the largest transactions was Olav Thon Eiendom’s acquisition of the Anthon Eiendom portfolio. The transaction comprised a portfolio of 16 properties, totalling approximately 150,000 square metres in the Oslo area, including several office assets.

Investor appetite for office assets has generally softened, with several investors already highly allocated to the sector and increasingly looking towards other property segments for returns. Demand remains for prime office assets in central Oslo, although investors have become more selective and the definition of 'prime' has narrowed considerably. The divergence between central and fringe locations is increasingly reflected in pricing. Office yields in fringe locations currently stand at 6.0 percent, 50 basis points higher than in January, driven by weaker investor appetite and increased selectivity among buyers. At the same time, we are also seeing signs of upward yield pressure for prime offices in central Oslo, which currently stands at 4.5 percent.

Tenant market

Leasing activity remained relatively stable during the first half of 2026, although overall occupier demand remains subdued and vacancy has increased to around 8.1 percent. The increase has been particularly pronounced in the eastern fringe, where vacancy is close to 12 percent in some submarkets.

At the same time, leasing activity remains stronger in Oslo CBD. PwC has also signed approximately 18,400 square metres in a new CBD development. Several other large occupiers such as Coop and Tine have signed new headquarters leases in central Oslo after relocating and consolidating from locations in the eastern fringe. These transactions illustrate the continued preference among larger occupiers for central, well-connected locations as part of broader workplace strategies focused on collaboration, access to talent and employer attractiveness.

Office rents have been broadly flat across most Oslo submarkets over the past two years. The exception is the eastern fringe Oslo market, where rising vacancy and weaker tenant demand have resulted in downward pressure on rents. Outlook Rising vacancy and more selective occupier demand are expected to keep pressure on the fringe market, while demand for high quality offices in Oslo CBD should remain relatively resilient. The gap between central and secondary locations is therefore expected to persist.

Investment market

Office investment activity in Copenhagen is slightly down year on-year, with transaction volume at around DKK 3 billion in the first half of 2026. Notable transactions in the capital include BRF Ejendommes purchase of Nørregade 7, Wihlborgs’ acquisition of Caroline Hus and Jeudan’s purchase of three centrally placed office buildings.

We continue to see a bifurcation in the market, where prime assets continue to attract strong occupier and investor interest, whereas older and less sustainable buildings are facing growing competitive pressure and weaker pricing power.

Tenant market

Occupier demand in Copenhagen remains high, with a couple of very large lettings. Nevertheless, office vacancy has had an upward trend in the Capital Region since the second quarter of 2023, showing signs of slightly weaker tenant demand relative to supply, although it is still below average. Notable leases include EY's upcoming move into Marmormolen, the newly built office in Nordhavn spanning more than 14,000 square metres and DLR Kredits move from Nyropsgade to Atrium on Havneholmen.

Outlook

The Copenhagen office market is entering a period of gradual improvement, rather than a pronounced upswing. Occupier demand remains firmly focused on high-quality assets that meet evolving workplace and sustainability requirements, reinforcing the ongoing bifurcation between prime and secondary stock. Investment activity is expected to be supported by domestic capital in the near term, with international investors likely to become increasingly active as confidence in pricing and market fundamentals improves. As such, the second half of 2026 is expected to continue the measured recovery seen throughout the first half of the year.