CHICAGO, January 11, 2024 – Clarity across markets has been in short supply recently but signs that investors are starting to reengage through a broader set of strategies are beginning to emerge. By the end of 2025, $3.1 trillion of real estate assets globally will have maturing debt, according to JLL’s Global Capital Outlook research. The current refinancing shortfall for these loan maturities is an estimated $270-$570 billion, which will catalyze transaction activity and provide a clear first-mover advantage for well capitalized investors in 2024.

Currently, substantial liquidity exists, with dry powder for commercial real estate (CRE) totalling $402 billion sitting on the sidelines. However, a clearer picture is already emerging as real estate has seen a growing number of bidders re-enter the market according to JLL’s proprietary Bid Intensity Index. This movement is being driven particularly by activity from private investors and select institutional capital with the U.S. being furthest along in its price adjustment cycle, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific.

JLL's proprietary Bid Intensity Index shows improved market trends since year-end 2022, despite the late summer run up in bond yields. Bidding activity was on the rise in late 2023, with the average number of bids per deal increasing by 16%, narrowing the bid-ask spread.