Infrastructure investment and population growth drive exceptional opportunities in Brisbane

As Australia's commercial real estate landscape continues to evolve, Brisbane emerges as a standout performer, delivering exceptional growth across multiple asset classes. The convergence of strategic infrastructure investment, robust population growth, and diversified economic fundamentals positions Queensland's capital as a compelling destination for private investors seeking sustainable returns in an increasingly competitive market.

The countdown to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games has triggered unprecedented infrastructure investment, fundamentally reshaping the commercial real estate opportunity landscape. The Queensland State Budget for 2024-2025 has allocated $107 billion to the Big Build program, encompassing transformative projects including the Cross River Rail and Borumba Pumped Hydro energy storage project. This substantial commitment extends far beyond Olympic preparation, positioning Brisbane as a major beneficiary of the energy transition and establishing critical infrastructure that will drive long-term economic growth.

Brisbane's office market has distinguished itself as a global performer, with the CBD and Near City markets delivering face rental growth that outperforms all of JLL's tracked office markets across the broader APAC region. This exceptional performance reflects fundamental market strength, with prime vacancy declining dramatically from 16.8% in Q2 2022 to 7.3% in Q1 2025.

The flight to quality trend continues to drive market dynamics, with prime grade net absorption totalling 152,700 square metres across the Brisbane CBD from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025. Small-to-medium businesses are increasingly prioritising high-quality space across the CBD and Near City markets to retain talent and enhance workplace experiences, creating sustained demand for premium office assets.

Looking ahead, office employment projections indicate 1.6% annual growth over the next decade, supported by Brisbane's substantial exposure to both traditional and emerging resource sectors. This diversified economic base, encompassing coal, gas, critical minerals, and resource recovery, provides a robust foundation for continued office market expansion.

Brisbane's residential market presents compelling opportunities driven by exceptional population dynamics. Population growth averaged 2.5% annually over the past three years (2023-2025), significantly exceeding the long-term 20-year average of 2.1%. This growth trajectory, underpinned by domestic and international migration including foreign students, has created acute housing supply shortages.

The build-to-rent sector exemplifies this opportunity, with Brisbane accounting for 12,600 units or 22% of Australia's overall BTR development pipeline. Brisbane ranks as the second-largest BTR pipeline nationally, ahead of Sydney, benefiting from lower site acquisition costs and strong rental growth fundamentals that support project feasibilities.

Rental market conditions remain exceptionally tight, with rent prices increasing 7.1% over the past year and a remarkable 12.6% annually on average over three years to May 2025. Institutional investors have recently paused their Australian BTR expansion strategies, creating opportunities for private investors to address Brisbane's residential supply gap.

Queensland's retail performance continues to outpace national averages, with year-on-year growth of 3.6% as of March 2025, compared to the national average of 3.1%. Rolling annual retail trade volumes exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 34%, outperforming major East Coast capital cities.

Private investors have recognised these fundamentals, deploying $1.1 billion in the neighbourhood retail sub-sector from 2023 to Q1 2025, with an average deal size of $33.9 million.

The industrial sector has experienced extraordinary growth, with leasing activity totalling 2.9 million square metres between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025. Prime rents in Brisbane's largest industrial precinct increased 37.9% over three years, reflecting exceptional demand driven by e-commerce adoption and elevated retail trade.

Brisbane's commercial real estate market represents a convergence of demographic growth, infrastructure investment, and economic diversification that creates sustainable competitive advantages. The city's exposure to both traditional and emerging economic sectors, combined with transformative infrastructure development, positions Brisbane as a premier destination for investors seeking exposure to Australia's evolving economy with strong risk-adjusted returns.

To read further analysis, access our report of the Brisbane market for private investors: link