JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index

The real estate market moves fast these days. What used to take years now happens in months, if not days. The investors who outperform are the ones who see what's coming next.

But most market insights tell you what already happened, not what's about to happen. Having data and knowing what it actually means for your next investment are two completely different things.

Our Global Bid Intensity Index measures direct investment market competitiveness through analysis of our proprietary bid data. The index combines three sub-indices to provide forward-looking insights on capital markets momentum globally—giving you early signals about where competition and pricing are headed.

Enhanced market timing: The index provides advance warning of competitive shifts, allowing you to position capital before broader market movements become apparent in transaction volumes.

Strategic sector allocation: Real-time bidding intelligence helps inform portfolio decisions by revealing which sectors are gaining or losing investor interest before this shows up in traditional market reports.

Capital deployment planning: Forward-looking indicators help anticipate when markets may shift from risk-averse to risk-on positioning, enabling more strategic capital deployment timing.

• Performance backdrop: JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index most recently peaked during late summer 2024 as the anticipation of the Fed’s first interest rate cut broadened liquidity in the marketplace and led to more competitive bidder dynamics. Bid Intensity Index eased at the beginning of 2025 as more volatile bond markets impacted underwriting, and the uncertainty around trade policy in April contributed to further softening in Bid Intensity Index.
• Current market dynamics: Bidder dynamics now appear to be stabilizing: JLL’s Bid Intensity Index in July 2025 marked the first month-over-month improvement since December of last year, which provides an indication of market wide investment sales bidding activity again getting more competitive following a period of uncertainty.
• Sector performance divergence: Living sector bidding dynamics continue to lead the other sectors. On the other hand, supply chain uncertainty has impacted bidding intensity in industrial & logistics. Retail bidding intensity is at improved levels compared to earlier last year, attributable to strong sector fundamentals. Office bid dynamics are showing improvement, partly attributable to a greater number of lenders quoting on office loans. Property sector performance fundamentals are holding up and asset valuations have generally held firm in year-to-date 2025.
• Capital deployment trajectory: The future trajectory of JLL’s Bid Intensity Index will continue to be impacted by investors’ expectations for the macro economy, geopolitical factors, trade policy, etc. Having worked through increased market uncertainty in recent months, more investors are moving to ‘risk-on’ mode, which, coupled with the exceptionally strong debt markets is expected to lead to continued growth in capital flows.

Living/Multi-Housing Our data shows this sector continues to see the most competitive bidding, driven by near-record dry powder and housing shortages across major markets. Investment insight: Expect continued competition for quality assets.

Industrial & Logistics Analysis reveals temporarily cooled bid intensity amid supply chain uncertainty and slower leasing activity. Investment insight: More clarity is emerging and transactions launches are picking up.

Retail Research indicates improved bid intensity since 2024, reflecting strong sector fundamentals with balanced supply/demand and resilient consumer spending. Investment insight: Sector momentum continues to build, suggesting favorable conditions for both buyers and sellers.

Office Data shows clear improvement from sentiment lows, with growing bidder pools and increased lender participation. Investment insight: Early signs of recovery are presenting opportunities for investors willing to act ahead of broader market recognition.

Research indicates more investors are moving toward ‘risk-on’ positioning, supported by strong debt markets. This suggests continued capital flow growth and increased market competition in the coming months.

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