JLL: Macau’s commercial and housing rents are expected to stabilise in 2026

MACAU and HONG KONG, 4 March, 2026 – Capital values declined across various property sectors in 2025 amid weak demand and macroeconomic uncertainties, according to JLL's "Macau Property Market Review and 2026 Market Forecast" released today. The residential market is expected to stabilize in 2026, while commercial properties are forecast to face continual pressure.

According to figures released by the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, the total gaming revenue of Macau in 2025 reached approximately MOP247.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. Revenue from the VIP market in 2025 was approximately MOP67.98 billion, up 24.1% year-on-year, accounting for about 27.5% of the overall market.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Macau in 2025 reached approximately MOP415.32 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. GDP calculated based on expenditure indicated that net exports, government final consumption expenditure and private consumption expenditure increased by 11.7%, 3.0% and 1.3% year-on-year, respectively, while fixed capital formation decreased by 7.8% year-on-year.

Data from Macao Government Tourism Office showed that visitor arrivals to Macau in 2025 reached approximately 40.069 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. According to Macau Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), mainland Chinese visitors rose another 18.5% year-on-year, accounting for 72.4% of the total visitor arrivals. Visitors through the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) also saw a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. Visitors from most other countries and regions recorded growth. As of the end of 2025, Macau had a hotel room supply of 45,165 rooms, a 4.9% increase compared to the end of the previous year. The cumulative hotel occupancy rate reached 89.4%, with the average length of stay remaining at approximately 1.7 nights.

Macau's employment situation remained stable in 2025. According to Macau’s DSEC, the overall unemployment rate and underemployment rate rose slightly to 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively, remaining at relatively low levels. The number of foreign workers grew more slowly, reaching approximately 183,679 by the end of 2025, a 0.6% increase compared to the end of 2024. In terms of income and savings, the median total income remained at MOP18,000, unchanged from 2024. Local residents' deposits amounted to approximately MOP819.58 billion by the end of 2025, a 7.6% increase compared to the end of the previous year.

Mark Wong, Senior Director of Value and Risk Advisory at JLL in Macau, pointed out: "Both gaming revenue and inbound visitor number recorded robust growth, reflecting the continued recovery of the tourism and gaming industries. However, economic growth has already returned to pre-pandemic levels, with the drivers concentrating on only individual industries, so the overall economy still faces a number of structural challenges to make a breakthrough. With banks tightening commercial property mortgage, the investment sentiment in Macau's commercial property market remains weak. Although some high-quality properties have been sold in major tourism areas, investors are targeting investment yields doubling previous levels. In addition, the official closure of all satellite casinos by the end of 2025 will continue to pose challenges to the real estate market, with overall commercial property capital values remaining in the bottoming phase."

A total of 2,775 residential property transactions were recorded in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The market saw 333 pre-sale transactions, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%.

In 2025, 10 projects received pre-sale permits, providing a total of 484 residential units for sale, covering a total gross floor area of approximately 33,344 sq m. They are mainly mass residential projects located on Macau Peninsula. Amongst them, the 312-unit Lake Yoho project has a relatively large scale. Its sales activities commenced last year with approximately 200 units sold during 2025.

Some residential properties in Macau saw fewer rental activities due to slower growth in the number of foreign employees. According to JLL Macau Property Index, the rental values of high-end residential properties rose by 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, while those of mass residential units fell by 10.3% year-on-year. Asset values continued to decline, with the capital values of high-end residential properties dropping by 14.7% year-on-year in 2025, while those of mass residential units declined 16.5% year-on-year. Their investment returns were 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively.

Mark said: “In 2025, with developers proactively lowering prices to boost the sales of new residential properties, residential prices experienced relatively significant adjustments. The Macau government announced measures in November 2025, such as stamp duty exemption for the first MOP6 million of property value and relaxing the loan-to-value ratios for residential mortgages. Coupled with multiple interest rate cuts by banks recently, the measures are expected to help alleviate mortgage burdens and stabilize the residential market in the short term. However, in the long term, limited rigid demand for residential developments in the medium term will pose challenges to the absorption of both public and private residential properties under planning. Furthermore, the lack of major population policies and new large-scale infrastructure projects will continue to pose uncertainties to the long-term development of Macau's real estate market.”

In 2025, 4,678 new companies were registered in Macau, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. According to JLL Macau Office Index, overall office rental value fell 3.4% year-on-year in 2025, while Grade A office rental values lost 0.9% year-on-year. DSEC’s data show that as of the third quarter of 2025, Macau's office vacancy rate climbed to approximately 15.3%.

In the sales market, office transaction prices continued to bottom. According to JLL Macau Office Index, the overall office capital value declined 7.9% year-on-year in 2025, while Grade A office prices fell 2.0% year-on-year. The net yields on overall office buildings and Grade A office buildings were approximately 3.2%.

Cost control has become the top priority for most companies, with multinational corporations focusing on the consolidation of office space. With slower declines in office rents, the majority of tenants are considering the early renewal of their leases for longer lease terms to reduce operating costs and capture the favourable timing for long-term tenancy agreements. Macau’s overall office market remains in the downward cycle, facing certain challenges ahead.

The local retail sector has been under the impacts of factors such as outbound travel, declining consumption and shrinking wealth. In the first three quarters of 2025, the total retail sales value reached only about MOP50.56 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.4%. According to data from Macau’s DSEC, most retail categories recorded significant declines in sales, with only Pharmacies and Dried Seafood recording increases.

According to JLL Macau Retail Index, rental values declined 0.9% year-on-year in 2025, while capital values fell 8.9% year-on-year, with prime retail properties yielding approximately 2.7%. The delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans reached around 5.4% by the end of 2025, with a continued increase in the sales of distressed properties in the market, potentially yielding over 4.0%.

With years of significant adjustments in the capital prices of prime street shops and the return of visitor arrivals to high levels, tourist areas have begun to see attractive rental yields, prompting some local investors to return to prime retail investment market. However, the situation is the opposite for neighbourhood shops. The high delinquency rate of commercial property loans will continue to weigh on market sentiment, thus price adjustments are expected to continue in the overall retail market.