Source: JLL Research, 1Q24

In 2023, 100% of completions in Kemps Creek were pre-committed – suggesting developers need the backing of a locked-in tenant to push ahead with their Kemps Creek projects. As at Q1 2024, the pre-commitment rate for projects completing this year has dropped to 70%, then to 10% in 2025, when approximately 700,000 sqm is planned to come to market.

With limited pre-lease appetite among occupiers, this raises the question of whether these projects still add up and how much development will actually materialise over the medium term. This might add to uncertainty in one of Sydney’s most important future industrial precincts.