Housing market overview - H1 2026

Developments on the demand and supply side

The demand side of Berlin's housing market remains under pressure. By the end of 2025, Berlin's population reached 3,700,577 inhabitants, representing moderate growth of +0.4% (+15,312 people) compared to the start of the year. International immigration is the sole driver of this population growth, underscoring the continuing importance of immigration for the city's demographic development. The positive net migration effectively offsets the natural population decline, as deaths in Berlin continue to outnumber births. Although this momentum has slowed, it remains high enough that the demand surplus persists.

Berlin's building authorities approved 13,754 apartments in 2025, marking a substantial +40.7% increase compared to the previous year. This represents the first year-on-year growth in approved apartments in eight years. Of these approvals, 11,634 units will be constructed in new residential and non-residential buildings, reflecting a +35.9% increase. Multi-family buildings account for the majority, with 10,767 planned apartments, up +36.6%.

However, completions declined significantly. In total 11,027 apartments were completed in 2025, representing a -28.2% decrease compared to 2024, where Berlin has seen already a new low in number of completions. This marks the second-lowest level in the past decade, far below the 2019 peak of nearly 19,000 units. The city achieved 29 completions per 10,000 inhabitants, placing it at average levels among Germany's eight largest cities. The building permit rate of 36 per 10,000 inhabitants exceeds the completion rate, signalling potential future supply growth and a healthier development pipeline.

Rent and purchase price development

In the first half of 2026, Berlin's rental housing market recorded a slight correction. The median asking rents for new lettings fell by -4.3% to €18.66/sqm. This is in stark contrast to the stability of the first half of 2025. Quality-adjusted rental growth also turned negative at -4.4%. Prime rents (90th percentile) fell by -0.8% to €28.66/sqm, while rents for existing apartments fell by -4.2% to €18.01/sqm. New construction rents reached an average of €21.92/sqm – a decline of -0.8% year-on-year. Despite this slight short-term correction, Berlin has the strongest long-term rental development among the Big 8 cities, with an average annual growth rate of +8.4% over five years, underlining the robust structural fundamentals.

The Berlin condominium market, on the other hand, proved resilient. Median asking prices rose by +2.8% to €5,800/sqm – a significant improvement on the subdued growth of +0.6% in the same period last year. Existing apartment prices rose by +2.0% to €5,540/sqm, while new-build apartments reached €8,140/sqm, recording substantial annual growth of +5.4%. Top prices (90th percentile) rose by +1.2% to €8,730/sqm. With a cumulative five-year growth of +10.3%, Berlin continues to demonstrate a robust long-term performance in the property segment.

Developments on the demand and supply side

By the end of 2025, Hamburg's population reached 1,869,473, an increase of +6,908 people or +0.4 % compared to the previous year. This is a significant increase that is also causing housing demand to rise further. This growth is primarily attributable to a positive net migration: Hamburg recorded a migration surplus of +8,532 people, while there was a natural population decline of -1,170 people.

Hamburg reported 5,976 completed apartments in 2025, a decline of -2,343 units or -28.2% compared to 2024. New construction accounted for 5,627 apartments, with multi-story apartment buildings comprising 87.2% of completions. An additional 349 units were created through modifications to existing buildings. This represents the lowest completion level since 2013 and falls -27.6% below the 10-yr average of 8,250 units per year.

Despite declining completions, building permit activity surged impressively. Authorities issued permits for 6,676 apartments in 2025, representing a +44.6% increase year-on-year. This positive momentum suggests improved future supply. Hamburg achieved 30 completions per 10,000 inhabitants, positioning it at average levels among the Big 8 cities. The building permit rate of 34 per 10,000 inhabitants exceeds the completion rate, indicating a strengthening pipeline for residential development.

Rent and purchase price development

In the first half of 2026, Hamburg maintained its position as the most dynamic rental market among the Big 8 cities of the past two years. Median asking rents for new lettings reached €18.63/sqm with annual growth of +4.7%. While this represents a slowdown from the exceptional growth of +13.7% in the first half of 2025, it remains robust and is supported by quality-adjusted growth of +5.8%. Prime rents (90th percentile) rose by +2.9% to €29.58/sqm, underlining Hamburg's premium positioning. Existing rents rose by +3.2% to €17.78/sqm and benefited from an average annual growth rate of +6.4% over five years – the second-highest value among major German cities. New construction rents rose by +1.1% to €23.75/sqm, with quality-adjusted growth of +4.7% indicating continued fundamental demand.

Hamburg's condominium market showed increased dynamism. Average asking prices rose by +1.6% to €6,300/sqm. Existing apartment prices rose by +2.4% to €5,750/sqm. In the new-build segment, a decline of -6.0% to €8,410/sqm was recorded, with quality-adjusted growth remaining positive at +5.9%, indicating compositional effects. Premium prices (90th percentile) rose by +1.2% to around €11,000/sqm.

Developments on the demand and supply side

The population of Munich increased again in 2025. By the end of 2025, a total of 1,612,429 people were living in the Bavarian state capital. This represents an increase of 8,653 people compared to the previous year. This positive development was driven by both a high migration gain—a positive net migration of +4,825 people was recorded—and natural population growth, which was in contrast to the trend in other major cities. Overall, this is leading to a further increase in excess demand on the housing market.

Munich experienced a significant contraction in residential completions during 2025. The city delivered 4,324 new residential units, representing a -33.5% decline from the 6,503 units completed in 2024. The number of completions in 2024 already has been relatively low and compared to the 2023 level, this represents a -56.0% decline over two years. Building permit activity also weakened, with 6,143 approved units marking a -26.2% year-on-year decrease. This continues a persistent downward trend in permits observed since 2017, totalling a -54.4% decline over the period.

Among Germany's eight largest cities, Munich recorded below-average construction activity with 28 completions per 10,000 inhabitants. However, a positive signal emerges from the building permit rate: at 40 permits per 10,000 inhabitants, Munich holds the second-highest rate among Big 8 cities, substantially exceeding its completion rate. This delta suggests potential recovery in future supply – albeit recovery will expected to be slow.

Rent and purchase price development

Munich maintained its position as the most expensive German rental market in the first half of 2026. Average rents reached €25.41/sqm – around +41.0% above the Big 8 average of €17.98/sqm. Annual rental growth accelerated to +5.4% compared to +5.0% in the previous year, confirming continued market momentum. Prime rents (90th percentile) rose by +4.0% to €37.50/sqm, underlining Munich's premium status. Existing rents rose by +3.9% to €25.09/sqm, while new-build rents reached €26.48/sqm – an annual growth of +0.8%. The average annual growth rate of +3.2% over five years reflects market maturity and the already elevated price level.

The Munich condominium market showed remarkable strength. Asking prices rose by +2.2% to €8,860/sqm, consolidating Munich's position as one of the most expensive German owner-occupied markets. Existing apartment prices rose by +1.4% to €8,390/sqm, while new construction prices fell by -4.2% to €10,810/sqm. Asking prices in the premium segment (90th percentile) rose by +1.2% to €13,200/sqm. Despite a cumulative five-year decline of -3.7%, the current stabilization trends position the market for a renewed increase in value.

Developments on the demand and supply side

The population in Cologne, and with it the demand for housing, continues to rise. By the end of 2025, Cologne's population reached 1,100,076, representing a growth of 2,557 people (+0.2 %) compared to the previous year. In 2025, the city recorded 56,321 arrivals versus 53,280 departures, resulting in a positive net migration of 3,041 people. This immigration offset the natural population decline of 1,064 people.

Cologne achieved exceptional completion levels in 2025, delivering 4,371 apartments, the highest annual figure in over a decade. This represents a +144.5% increase compared to the 1,788 completions recorded in 2024 and nearly double the long-term average of 2,474 units per year between 2016 and 2024. With an increase in completion numbers Cologne remains an exception among the German largest cities. Building permit activity also improved modestly, rising +3.9% to 2,689 approved units after several years of continuous decline from 2020.

With 39 completions per 10,000 inhabitants, Cologne achieved the second-highest construction activity among Germany's eight largest cities, trailing only Frankfurt. Current levels remain far below the 2014-2020 period when approvals consistently ranged between 3,000-3,600 units. However, the building permit rate of 24 per 10,000 inhabitants falls significantly below the completion rate and ranks as the second lowest among Big 8 cities.

Rent and purchase price development

In the first half of 2026, the Cologne rental market continued its solid development. Average asking rents for new rentals reached €17.01/sqm with annual growth of +4.5%. Although this represents a slowdown from the growth of +8.5% in the first half of 2025, it is close to the historical average. At +6.8%, quality-adjusted rent growth was significantly above the median growth. Prime rents (90th percentile) rose by +2.0% to €25.50/sqm, demonstrating sustained demand in the upper segment. New rental rents for existing apartments increased by +5.4% to €16.87/sqm, supported by a compound annual growth rate of +5.9% over five years. New build rents fell by -9.6% to €19.00/sqm, reflecting high volatility due to limited supply.

The Cologne condominium market showed a robust development. Average prices rose by +6.4% to €5,250/sqm – a significant acceleration compared to the growth of +2.5% in the first half of 2025, while asking prices for existing apartments rose by +5.6% to €4,980/sqm. New construction prices rose by +4.7% to €7,190/sqm, reversing the decline in the same period last year. Premium prices (90th percentile) grew by +1.9% to €7,590/sqm.

Developments on the demand and supply side

Frankfurt's population is growing continuously, reaching 781,337 inhabitants by the end of 2025. This represents an increase of 4,494 people compared to the previous year (776,843 inhabitants). The growth results from both a surplus of births and positive net migration. In 2025, the city recorded 54,606 arrivals versus 53,598 departures, resulting in a positive net migration of 1,008 people. For the Frankfurt housing market, this means a further increase in demand.

Frankfurt’s new housing market demonstrated renewed momentum in building permit approvals during 2025. Authorities approved 3,180 apartments, marking a +40.3% increase from the 2024 low of 2,266 units. This reversal ends a declining trend observed since 2021, though permit levels remain -56.6% below the 2018 peak.

Despite strengthening approvals, completions declined modestly. The city delivered 3,772 newly constructed apartments in 2025, approximately -10.3% fewer than in 2024. This reflects the impact of reduced permit activity in prior years. Among Germany's Big 8 cities, Frankfurt achieved the highest construction activity with 48 completed residential units per 10,000 inhabitants. The building permit rate of 40 per 10,000 inhabitants significantly exceeds the Big 8 average, positioning Frankfurt favourably for future supply growth.

Rent and purchase price development

In the first half of 2026, Frankfurt's rental market showed resilient, albeit significantly slower development. Average asking rents for new lettings reached €19.45/sqm with annual growth of +2.4% – a significant slowdown from +7.2% in the first half of 2025. Prime rents (90th percentile) fell by -0.8% to €28.96/sqm, marking a trend reversal after the strong development of the previous year. New rents for existing apartments rose by +3.6% to €18.94/sqm, supported by quality-adjusted growth of +3.8%. Asking rents for new-build apartments fell by -3.6% to €21.55/sqm, following growth of +2.3% in the first half of 2025. The average annual growth rate of +3.9% over five years reflects a mature market with moderate but consistent growth.

The Frankfurt condominium market continued its sideways movement. Average asking prices fell marginally by -1.0% to €6,330/sqm, following growth of +2.3% in the first half of 2025, while existing apartment prices rose minimally by +0.1% to €5,960/sqm. New construction prices rose by +1.7% to €8,110/sqm. Premium prices (90th percentile) fell by -2.3% to €9,470/sqm. Despite a cumulative five-year decline of -10.4%, Frankfurt remains by far the second most expensive property market among the German Big 8 cities after Munich.

Developments on the demand and supply side

The population of Dusseldorf increased slightly again in 2025. By the end of 2025, a total of 659,312 people were living in the state capital of North Rhine-Westphalia. This represents an increase of +1,067 people compared to the previous year. This development continues to be driven by a positive net migration. In 2025, 41,490 people moved to Dusseldorf, while 39,334 people left the city. This results in a surplus of +2,156 people and an increase in housing demand as new supply remains low.

Dusseldorf completed 1,704 new residential units in 2025, reflecting a -14.4% decrease compared to the previous year. More encouragingly, building permit activity strengthened substantially. Authorities approved 3,004 residential units, representing a +9.8% year-on-year increase. This positive trajectory signals improving prospects for future housing supply and demonstrates a reversal in permit trends.

The city recorded 26 completions per 10,000 inhabitants, placing it in the middle range among Germany's eight largest cities. Particularly noteworthy is the building permit rate of 47 per 10,000 inhabitants—the highest among all Big 8 cities—which significantly exceeds the completion rate. This 21-unit differential represents the largest positive gap among compared cities, indicating a robust development pipeline. Dusseldorf's strong permit-to-completion ratio positions the city favourably for addressing future housing demand.

Rent and purchase price development

Dusseldorf's rental market continued its strong growth trajectory in the first half of 2026. Average asking rents for new rentals reached €16.19/sqm with annual growth of +7.4%. This represents only a slight weakening compared to +8.3% in the first half of 2025 – the momentum thus remains at a high level. Quality-adjusted rental growth was +7.0%, confirming the observed market dynamics. Prime rents (90th percentile) rose by +2.5% to €24.79/sqm, demonstrating continued growth. New rents for existing apartments rose by +5.0% to €15.75/sqm. New build rents recorded a decline of -0.3% to €20.41/sqm, reversing the exceptional growth of +17.2% in the same period last year – high volatility reflecting a steadily decreasing number of observations in this segment. The average annual growth rate of +4.8% over five years positions Dusseldorf among Germany's more dynamic rental markets in 2026.

Dusseldorf's condominium market showed impressive dynamism. Average asking prices rose by +6.4% to €4,950/sqm, after a decline of -2.1% in the first half of 2025, while existing apartment prices rose by +6.2% to €4,720/sqm, with quality-adjusted growth reaching +7.3%, the highest value of all segments analysed. New construction prices fell by -5.0% to €7,500/sqm. Premium prices (90th percentile) rose by +4.0% to €8,240/sqm. With a cumulative five-year growth of +3.5%, Dusseldorf demonstrates solid fundamentals.

Developments on the demand and supply side

The population of Stuttgart decreased slightly in 2025. A total of 605,663 people were living in the state capital of Baden-Württemberg by the end of 2025, which corresponds to a decrease of 3,671 people compared to the previous year. This development is primarily driven by a negative net migration. In 2025, the migration loss was around 3,252 people. Additionally, the natural population development contributed to the decline. This trend contributes to a slight easing of the market situation, which had been characterized by very low completion numbers for many years and reached a new low in 2025.

Completions declined sharply in 2025, with only 661 new apartments delivered compared to 1,321 in 2024, representing a -50.0% decrease-the largest YoY-decrease among the German Big-8 cities and the lowest number since 2011 However, building permit activity improved markedly. Authorities approved 1,330 apartments during the year, representing a +38.4% increase from the 961 units approved in 2024, offering a glimmer of hope.

Among Germany's eight largest cities, Stuttgart recorded the lowest construction activity with just 10 completed apartments per 10,000 inhabitants—significantly below the Big 8 average. The building permit rate of 20 per 10,000 inhabitants also ranks as the lowest among compared cities. While the year-on-year improvement in approvals offers optimism for future supply, Stuttgart continues to face substantial challenges in addressing its tight housing market. The significant gap between current demand and delivered supply remains a critical concern.

Rent and purchase price development

In the first half of 2026, rents on Stuttgart's housing market recorded moderate growth. Average asking rents for new lettings reached an average of €17.33/sqm – an annual growth of +2.4% and thus a slowdown from +4.8% in the first half of 2025. Prime rents (90th percentile) rose by +3.6% to €25.91/sqm, demonstrating resilience in the premium segment. New rents for existing apartments rose by +2.8% to €17.14/sqm. New build rents showed remarkable strength with an increase of +7.3% to €23.00/sqm, although this represents a significant slowdown from the exceptional growth of +14.3% in the same period last year.

Stuttgart's condominium market continued its consolidation phase. Average asking prices reached €4,620/sqm on average, with a marginal annual decline of -1.3%. Existing apartment prices fell by -2.4% to €4,460/sqm. New construction prices fell by -3.6% to €8,070/sqm, continuing the trend of the same period last year. Premium prices (90th percentile) rose by +6.6% to €7,600/sqm, marking a significant recovery. Despite a cumulative five-year decline of -11.0%, Stuttgart maintains its position as the third most expensive German property market in the premium segment. The current stabilization trends indicate that the market is approaching a turning point towards renewed appreciation.

Developments on the demand and supply side

The population of Leipzig also increased in 2025. By the end of the year, 633,592 people were living in the Saxon metropolis. However, the increase of +1,030 people compared to the previous year was significantly smaller, marking the weakest rise since 2002. Leipzig had grown strongly in the preceding years: by around 66,000 inhabitants in the last ten years alone, and between 2011 and 2023, it was the fastest-growing city among those with more than 500,000 inhabitants.

Leipzig has recorded a significant decline in residential completions in recent years, and a low level is also expected going forward, as since the peak in building permits in 2020, Leipzig experienced the sharpest decline among the Big-8 cities with a decrease of over -60%. However, with the strong increase in population, the relevance of new residential construction for the increased housing demand has also risen here.

The growth was driven exclusively by a positive net migration. In 2025, there were 37,347 arrivals versus 33,290 departures, resulting in a migration gain of 4,057 people. This figure, however, is noticeably lower than that of the previous year. This immigration was offset by a strongly negative natural population development, which significantly slowed overall growth. The years of strong growth have also had a major impact on housing demand and thus on the market.

Rent and purchase price development

With average asking rents for new lettings of €11.19/sqm, Leipzig maintained its position as the cheapest rental market among Germany's Big 8 cities in the first half of 2026. However, growth has slowed significantly, reaching +1.6% year-on-year – a significant slowdown from +11.4% in the first half of 2025. Prime rents (90th percentile) rose by +0.4% to €16.00/sqm, demonstrating stability in the upper market segment. New contract rents for existing apartments increased by +2.5% to €10.75/sqm, while new-build apartments reached €15.00/sqm – an annual growth of +5.6%. With an average annual growth rate of +8.0% over five years – the second-highest value among the Big 8 cities – Leipzig has achieved strong catch-up effects and continues to demonstrate high long-term growth potential.

Leipzig's condominium market continued its high momentum in 2026. Median prices rose by +3.0% to €3,150/sqm, consolidating Leipzig's position as Germany's most dynamic property market. Asking prices for existing apartments rose by +1.6% to €2,990/sqm. New construction prices rose by +4.9% to €5,250/sqm. Premium prices (90th percentile) rose by +2.3% to €5,310/sqm. With an average annual growth rate of +5.2% and a cumulative price increase of +7.2% over five years, Leipzig achieves the highest long-term growth among the German Big 8 cities.

German residential construction reached its lowest level in over a decade in 2025 with 206,600 completed housing units – an 18% year-on-year decline and the third consecutive decline. Persistently high construction costs combined with higher interest rates continue to weigh heavily on the realisation of residential construction projects.

Among the Big 8 cities, 11,027 apartments were completed in Berlin (-28.2%), in Hamburg 5,976 units (-28.2%), in Munich 4,324 apartments (-33.5%) and in Stuttgart only 661 units (-50.0%). Cologne was the only exception with 4,371 completed apartments – an increase of +144.5% and the highest level of completion per capita among the major cities.

In the course of 2026, number of permissions developed much more positively, recording a slight recovery in the number of approved apartments both nationwide and in the metropolises. In 2025, 243,460 building permissions were issued in Germany – an increase of +12.8% compared to 2024, although still well below the pre-crisis level of 260,074 permits (2023) and 354,343 permits (2022). Hamburg approved 6,676 apartments (+44.6%), Berlin issued permits for 13,754 units (+40.7%) and Frankfurt for 3,180 apartments (+40.3%). Munich recorded a further decline with 6,143 approved apartments (-26.2%).

The housing sector is moving between encouraging signals in terms of permits and persistent structural challenges. Increased construction costs – driven by stricter technical requirements, material price developments and increased capital costs – continue to impair project profitability. Financing conditions have tightened significantly due to interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, which is reflected, among other things, in the significantly deteriorated business climate for residential construction. Despite the positive development in number of permissions, new residential construction remains on a fragile recovery path in view of increasing project cancellations.

This decline in supply contrasts sharply with the persistently robust demand for housing, which is primarily driven by migration gains. Population growth continued to be concentrated in the Big 8 cities, with Berlin as the absolute leader (+15,312 inhabitants), followed by Munich (+8,653) and Hamburg (+6,908). Positive net immigration compensated for the natural population decline – in most cities deaths exceeded births – which means that housing demand remains at elevated levels and pressure on already tight markets continues.

Overall market development

Germany's largest urban rental markets recorded a significant slowdown in rental price development in the first half of 2026. In the Big 8 cities, median asking rents reached €17.98/sqm with an annual growth of +3.0% – less than half of the +6.8% in the same period last year. This slowdown, after years of exceptionally strong growth, is mainly due to deteriorating affordability.

The slowdown was particularly concentrated in the big cities. Smaller independent cities maintained their growth rate almost unchanged with an average new letting rent of €11.57/ and +3.4%. In the rural districts, on the other hand, rents accelerated from +3.7% to +4.8% and thus stood at an average new letting rent of €9.88/sqm in the first half of the year. This divergent rent dynamics confirms that increasing affordability pressure is the main cause of the weaker development in the big cities.

Existing and new construction segment dynamics

In the first half of 2026, median rents for existing apartments in the Big 8 cities averaged €17.54/sqm, with growth of +3.3% compared to the previous year's number – significantly below the previous year's trend of +6.6%. The regional dynamics show regional differences: Hamburg maintained a comparatively robust momentum of +6.2%, while Leipzig slowed to +2.5% after double-digit growth rates had been recorded in the previous year. Berlin's transition into negative territory was particularly noteworthy, with new letting rents for existing apartments falling by -4.2% year-on-year. However, it should be emphasized that rent growth in Berlin has been significantly stronger than in the other cities over the past five years.

In the new-build segment, the development was more subdued. At an average of €21.39/sqm, there was an increase of only +0.5% – a significant decrease from +8.6% in the previous year. However, this aggregated dynamic masks essential compositional effects. The declining supply of new rental apartments in conjunction with an increasing share of subsidized housing construction means that individual projects have a disproportionately large influence on the overall statistics. There are also still considerable regional disparities in absolute rent levels. At €26.48/sqm, Munich has the highest average rents for new buildings, well ahead of Hamburg (€23.75/sqm), Stuttgart (€23.00/sqm) and Berlin (€21.92/sqm). At €15.00/sqm, Leipzig remains the cheapest major city market for new-build apartments.

Overall market development

The condominium market followed a slight recovery path in the first half of 2026. Average prices in the Big 8 cities reached €5,660/sqm – an increase of +2.9% year-on-year. This marks a slight acceleration in price development compared to the rather stagnating growth of +0.4% in the previous year and signals a revival of market momentum, which will persist in the course of 2026 despite the higher interest rate level.

In addition to similar basic trends, the regional dynamics show some differences. Cologne and Dusseldorf led the way in terms of price development with +6.4% each, reaching average asking prices of €5,250/sqm and €4,950/sqm respectively. Prices in Berlin rose by +2.8% to €5,800/sqm, while Munich was able to underpin its position as the most expensive property market with an average of €8,860/sqm and growth of +2.2%. Leipzig continued its exceptional development with +3.0% to €3,150/sqm. In contrast, Frankfurt (-1.0%) to €6,330/sqm and Stuttgart (-1.3%) to €4,620/sqm recorded marginal price declines.

Existing and new construction segment dynamics

The existing segment acted as a driver of the market recovery with a median price increase of +2.4% in the Big 8 cities. Dusseldorf achieved the strongest performance among the largest German cities with +6.2% to €4,720/sqm, supported by quality-adjusted growth of +7.3% – the highest value of all segments analysed. Cologne followed with +5.6% to €4,980/sqm, while Hamburg rose by +2.4% to €5,750/sqm. Berlin recorded +2.0% to €5,540/sqm, Munich +1.4% to €8,390/sqm.

In the new-build segment, prices stabilised at an average of €7,940/sqm, with a moderate increase of +1.1% compared to the previous year's figures. Berlin led with +5.4% to €8,140/sqm, followed by Leipzig with +4.9% to €5,250/sqm and Cologne with +4.7% to €7,190/sqm. On the other hand, prices fell in Hamburg (-6.0% to €8,410/sqm), Dusseldorf (-5.0% to €7,500/sqm) and Munich, which fell by -4.2% to €10,810/sqm despite the highest absolute price level.

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Authors
Dr. Sören Gröbel, Director of Living Research, Germany
Alwina Fatima, Senior Research Analyst

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Dr. Sören Gröbel, Director of Living Research, Germany