Political uncertainty and trade disturbances loom over the commercial real estate market in 2025, but market fundamentals are improving
Key 2025 outlook themes:
Investment Volumes: Investment volumes decline for the second consecutive year across all asset classes in Canada. Volumes are down 14% year-over-year and 25% from the record year in 2022. Hotels and Alternative assets witnessed strong growth in volume while industrial had the largest decline year-over-year.
Investor Buyer Profile: Private investors continue to dominate the investment market, but owner-users are the fastest growing buyer cohort.
Multifamily: Multifamily investment sales reached $9b nationally, down 3.6% versus 2023, and down 13.7% versus the five-year average. Calgary and Edmonton are each seeing record levels of apartment sales thanks to strong demographic growth and higher yields that are attracting a wider pool of buyers.
Retail: Canada’s retail market remained strong in 2024 with availability rates generally lower than U.S. cities. Vancouver and Toronto boast the lowest retail availability rates in North America.
Industrial: Industrial vacancy maintained it’s upward trajectory in 2024 as the post pandemic wave of new supply was completed and user demand had its slowest year in well over a decade.
Office: The supply pipeline continued it’s decline while office tenant activity has begun to accelerate. Despite negative net absorption of -690k, it was the best absorption reading since 2019.