A first half of contrasts for Belgian real estate

BRUSSELS, 22 July 2025 – JLL reviews the first half of 2025 in the Belgian commercial real estate market and summarises the major trends across the three main segments.

While traditionally the office segment dominates investment volume in Belgium, the results from this first half of 2025 reveal a radically different trend.

Of the approximately €1.6 billion in transactions recorded in H1 2025, nearly half involves industrial real estate. This exceptional performance confirms one of the key findings from the recent survey conducted by JLL in collaboration with UPSI-BVS on investor confidence: Industry and Logistics now constitute the preferred asset class for commercial real estate investors. Over six months, the volume reached €768 million, more than triple compared to the same period in 2024. With the sale of the Weerts portfolio to Intervest for €300 million, it is already certain that the €1 billion mark will be significantly exceeded, making 2025 the most successful year ever recorded for industrial real estate in Belgium.

Key transactions include the Logicor portfolio acquired by American investment fund Ares (€140 million), the sale of the Makro-Metro portfolio to LCV and Colruyt for €143 million, as well as the disposal of the MG Malinas building to German investor Deka for approximately €110 million.

Market fundamentals remain very strong. Nationally, the vacancy rate remains slightly below 3%, while on the Brussels-Antwerp axis, it is only 2.16%, one of the lowest levels in Europe. On the demand side, however, a slowdown is observed. The logistics market is experiencing a sharp contraction with 199,236 sq m take up, down 29% year-on-year. In contrast, the semi-industrial segment shows better performance with 474,097 sq m, representing 70% of industrial market transactions. The average number of transactions and their size are increasing for semi-industrial, while the average size of logistics transactions is decreasing, as occupiers optimise their real estate footprint in favour of smaller spaces offering better operational efficiency.

The combination of a 10% increase in "prime" logistics rents to €75/sq m/year and a slight compression of yields to 4.9% is leading to a revaluation of logistics properties, further enhancing their attractiveness.

The office sector remains subdued with only €216 million in investment volume, the lowest level since 2012. JLL and UPSI-BVS's Investor Sentiment Survey indeed indicated that offices ranked only third in investor preferences, behind industrial and residential but ahead of retail. Valuations are feeling the impact: yields have been frozen for over two years at 5% for buildings in Brussels CBD, and at 5.75% in Flanders.

The rental dynamics are quite different: in Brussels, they remain at their highest level of €400/sq m/year, while in Antwerp they stay at their record level of €200/sq m/year. Another encouraging sign is that rental vacancy is only slightly increasing to 8% in Brussels (compared to 7.8% at the end of 2024) and remains stable at 4.4% in Antwerp. The main obstacle lies in demand that is struggling to recover. Despite two significant transactions from the European Union totaling more than 40,000 sq m, take-up remains 8% lower than the previous year, with 170,000 sq m. Notably, nearly 75% of the take-up involves "Grade A" buildings, an absolute record!

Other significant transactions of the semester in Brussels include Deutsche Bank, which pre-leased the entirety of the Meeus 29 project (5,705 sq m), and the National Lottery, which acquired the remainder of the Brouck'R building (4,500 sq m), bringing its total occupation to nearly 11,000 sq m. In Flanders, Antwerp recorded a 55% decline in take-up, while Ghent, which had been lagging for two years, rebounded by 61% thanks to the new Ouverture and AI Campus Hub projects, both located along the E40.

Ranking fourth in real estate investor preferences, retail investment volume increased by 39% year-on-year to reach €346 million. Retail warehousing largely dominates with an 83% share of transaction volume. The riskier High Street segment declined by 30% compared to the five-year average and by 22% on an annual basis. No transactions have been recorded in shopping centres so far, a situation that should evolve in the coming months given the renewed interest from institutional investors in this asset class. Yields remain stable at 4.85% for High Street, 5.75% for shopping centres and 5.8% for retail warehousing.

Beyond purely real estate transactions, the first half was also marked by mergers and acquisitions. After the takeovers of Befimmo by Brookfield and Intervest by TPG, it is now Forum Estates, a real estate company specialising in retail, that has been acquired by the investment fund Cibus Nordic Real Estate.

Regarding the occupier market, results are mixed. With stable take-up in the first half of 2025 of 204,127 sq m, the market presents an interesting segment dynamic. While High Street (40% of transaction volume) and shopping centres are experiencing strong increases of +24% and +36% year-on-year respectively, retail warehousing (50% of volume) is undergoing strategic recalibration with a 14% decline. "Prime" rents maintain their stability in key locations, with Antwerp at €1,700/sq m/year and Brussels at €1,650/sq m/year. Shopping centre rents in the capital show upward pressure, reaching €1,275/sq m/year.

Pierre-Paul Verelst, Head of Research BeLux at JLL, summarises the situation: "Multiple macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties have weighed on occupier demand in most segments. In contrast, investors seem to be gradually regaining confidence, even if this trend is not yet visible everywhere. The contrast is therefore striking: occupiers favour caution, while investors are returning to buying. Market fundamentals are very solid, whether in logistics, offices or retail. With the European Central Bank having reduced its rates eight times, few elements are now missing for a more decisive recovery in real estate activity in Belgium."