Real estate investor confidence improves

Brussels, 26 February 2026 – Just days before MIPIM begins, JLL unveils the results of a survey conducted in December 2025 and January 2026 among around one hundred real estate investors and developers active in Belgium and Luxembourg.

The year 2025 demonstrated a recovery in both countries with rising transaction volumes. In Belgium, total volume surged 42% to €4.5 billion, driven by a record year in logistics real estate and an excellent year for retail, while the office sector remains under pressure. A similar trend was observed in Luxembourg with a rebound of nearly 39% to €841 million and an unprecedented sector mix for the Grand Duchy combining office, industrial, shopping centers and residential.

Despite this positive momentum, uncertainty - particularly geopolitical - and its impact on the economy continue to influence investor sentiment. JLL surveyed its clients to gauge their positioning in this contrasting context.

Here are the key findings.

"In the past 12 months, the European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its key interest rate several times to reach its current level of 2%. Given that inflation has stabilised around the 2% target, most economists agree that the ECB's monetary policy will remain unchanged in 2026," explains Pierre-Paul Verelst, Head of Research at JLL BeLux. "However, after a decline in long-term interest rates at the end of 2024, they have risen slightly during 2025," he notes.

Based on this, 82% of investors believe conditions are stable or improving: 56% consider that market conditions for real estate investment have remained the same as at the beginning of 2025, while 26% believe conditions are improving. Only 18% of respondents think conditions have deteriorated. Most respondents indicate that, as in 2024 and 2023, banks now systematically integrate ESG criteria, confirming the embedding of these standards."As I take on this responsibility, my priorities are clear: to grow our business even closer to our clients, to develop and empower top talent, and to innovate with purpose in a rapidly accelerating world. I'm grateful to count on the expertise and support of our board members," said Chizelle.

As an encouraging sign, JLL's survey indicates a certain return to optimism among investors: 88% of investors are either maintaining or increasing their real estate exposure. 44% are ready to increase their real estate exposure, 44% plan no change compared to 2025. A minority of investors (12%) are opting for a reduction strategy.

We then surveyed current and future sector preferences. For traditional sectors, investors favor logistics as their preferred asset class both for today and for the future. This marks a change from last year when the multifamily segment was investors' preference for 2025 and beyond, while the current favorite asset class was already logistics. In our new survey, office real estate rises to second position, closely followed by retail, then multifamily. We also observe that the hotel segment is gaining ground with investors.

The other key message from our survey on sector allocation is the strong rise of data centers in alternative asset preferences. This segment, which is gaining momentum partly due to the expansion of artificial intelligence use, ranks first in our survey with 47% favorable votes, almost equal with student housing which was first in our previous survey. In contrast, we observe a decline in the affordable housing segment, cited by 39% of respondents versus 46% in 2025. This may be explained by doubts about government support for social housing in a tight budgetary context.

Regarding the expected evolution of yields - and ultimately property valuations - results vary by asset class. During 2025, the main movements were a 25 bps reduction in office yields in Luxembourg (to 4.5%) and a 10 bps compression of logistics yields to 4.9%. According to JLL's survey, in 2026, 46% of investors expect office yields to compress, particularly in Belgium. Currently, yields have stabilised at 5% in Brussels and 5.75% in Flanders. In contrast, a clear majority of investors believe that logistics yields will remain unchanged (63% of responses), as will retail yields (51%).

Investors demonstrate insight in identifying the main factors requiring vigilance. In the 2025 survey, Donald Trump's return to the White House was by far the most significant risk (76% of respondents): the multiple shocks caused by the American president demonstrate the relevance of this analysis.

For 2026, political tensions both in Europe and internationally remain at the centre of concerns for 69% of investors, followed by attention to economic growth (63%, versus 48% last year). Finally, while investors may have underestimated risks related to inflation and interest rates in 2025, 47% remain vigilant on this point even though a stabilisation has been observed in recent weeks.

While the recent turbulence of American tariff policy and tensions in the Middle East call for some caution, we now have reference transactions providing visibility on achievable returns upon resale. Combined with the stabilisation of financing conditions, we can state that uncertainty is fading for value-add investors, namely developers launching new projects.

"The conditions are therefore in place to restore liquidity in all segments," affirms Vincent Van Brée, Head of Capital Markets at JLL BeLux. "We expect a good year for both office and shopping centers. The hospitality segment also looks very promising," he concludes.