Rising costs of real estate combined with a return to ‘normal’ consumer demand, following the peaks experienced during the pandemic, are a key consideration of an occupier’s strategy in 2024.

The response from industrial occupiers: strategic consolidation. 

Companies are reevaluating their warehouse and fulfillment centers to boost efficiency, cut costs, and enhance productivity.

"There is a shift towards larger, centralized regional locations, signaling a departure from previous, often reactive, real estate strategy to keep up with demand,” says Charlotte Elstob, Managing Director, Industrial Occupier Services. Large occupiers like Target have recently announced a pivot to a ‘regional’ model for their distribution network.

The surge of adoption of e-commerce during the global pandemic led to a significant increase in the demand for distribution sites closer to customers. This, in turn, sparked a wave of construction, with 593.5 million square feet of new product added to the market in 2023, according to JLL’s Q4 U.S. Industrial Outlook. 

With this growth came a significant increase in rental rates since 2020, which rose by a factor of two to three times from pre-pandemic rates. This has made cost a primary driver for occupiers when reassessing their leases, Elstob says.

The JLL Q4 ’23 U.S. Industrial Outlook shows that while the rental growth rate is still intact, it is moderating. According to the report, the average asking rate increased by 12.3% year-over-year, reaching $9.90 per square foot.